Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:51:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
39 0x39b7…6cf3 other 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 452d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate70%16W / 7L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% +$1
other 20% +$1
politics 8% +$1
tech 3% $0
culture 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +1.1% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 7 +0.5% -9.1% 57% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 7 +0.5% -9.1% 57% 0% -9.0%
all 23 +0.8% -8.8% 70% 0% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 0% -8.9%
10% -17.5% 0% -17.6%
15% -25.5% 0% -25.6%
20% -32.8% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×4.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×14.67 per $1 lost it wins $14.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

452d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses16 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage452d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 91¢ 91¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $43 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $42 +$1 +3%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $46 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $47 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $24 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Jun 24 $13 +$1 +6%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump impose tariffs on Denmark in the first 100 days? Apr 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 17 $2 $0 +2%
Will the AFD be part of the next German government? Apr 15 $13 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 50,000-100,000 betwee Apr 12 $15 $0 +2%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will Jordan Spieth win The 2025 Masters? Apr 10 $15 $0 -0%
Will Viktor Hovland win The 2025 Masters? Apr 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 07 $15 $0 -0%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? Apr 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Mar 29 $15 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 again by March 31? Mar 25 $14 $0 +1%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? Mar 23 $15 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $8 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $35 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $43 7h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $43 10h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $43 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $3 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $40 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $43 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $42 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $46 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $46 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $1 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $1 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $1 7d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $10 7d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $1 7d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $10 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 98¢ $24 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 98¢ $24 9d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $26 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $26 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $46 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $46 11d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1 337d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 389d
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? BUY No 99¢ $2 412d
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? BUY No 94¢ $13 426d
Will Trump impose tariffs on Denmark in the first 100 days? SELL No 99¢ $13 426d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? SELL Yes $0 426d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? SELL Yes $2 426d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.77 · official $42.77 (match) · 60 history records