Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:55:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
39 0x39b7…1848 other 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 300d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$23 (+2%) realized +$24 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate42%13W / 18L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% +$1
world 25% +$46
politics 21% $0
crypto 11% $0
sports 8% $0
culture 4% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +2.0% -7.8% 67% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 3 +2.0% -7.8% 67% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 6 +47.8% +33.7% 67% 33% +7.6%
all 31 +9.2% -1.2% 42% 6% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.2% 6% -4.6%
10% -10.7% 6% -13.7%
15% -19.3% 6% -22.0%
20% -27.2% 6% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 94% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% too few recent
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$0 · ×46.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×150.01 per $1 lost it wins $150.01
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

300d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized+$24
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses13 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage300d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 90¢ 89¢ $63 $62 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $48 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $132 +$1 +1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $29 +$2 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $12 +$25 +212%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $30 +$21 +69%
Will Alberta join the US? May 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Sep 16 $36 $0 -1%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 16 $36 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $350 in September? Sep 15 $32 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 15 $31 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 15 $4 $0 -2%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 14 $35 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? Sep 13 $35 $0 +0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Sep 13 $36 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 08 $36 $0 +0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 02 $2 $0 -0%
Will Alex de Minaur win the 2025 US Open? Sep 02 $34 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September? Sep 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Aug 29 $34 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in Aug 28 $33 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 28 $35 $0 +0%
Will Anthony Albanese be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 28 $36 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $63 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $48 4h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $11 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $10 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $28 8h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 45¢ $9 11h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 45¢ $21 11h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 45¢ $39 11h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 42¢ $64 14h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 51¢ $10 18h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 51¢ $54 18h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 54¢ $68 22h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $31 29h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 31h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $21 31h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 34¢ $5 30d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 34¢ $7 30d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $12 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $14 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $37 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $30 31d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 31d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 31d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? SELL No 96¢ $36 280d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? BUY No 97¢ $36 280d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $36 280d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $36 281d
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 281d
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 281d
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 281d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.30 · official $98.30 (match) · 141 history records