Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:16:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
39 0x39bc…2739 sports 72 markets active 4h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$760 (-3%) realized −$770 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%22W / 49L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$349per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$265est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$310now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,271
7 days−$1,678
14 days−$534
30 days−$534
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$757
other 31% +$1,224
world 6% −$1,500
crypto 2% +$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-32.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -29.0% -35.8% 28% 28% -13.9%
≤30d 37 -29.0% -35.8% 30% 30% -8.8%
≤90d 37 -29.0% -35.8% 30% 30% -8.8%
all 71 -25.4% -32.5% 31% 31% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.5% 31% -10.5%
10% -38.9% 31% -19.0%
15% -44.8% 31% -26.8%
20% -50.2% 30% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$508) neutral
Persistence
early -24% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$492 vs −$241 · ×2.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$310
Realized−$770
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses22 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$265
Open positions1
Markets (closed)71 / 72
History coverage102d
Avg bet$349
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffs EDward Gaming 30¢ 31¢ $300 $310 +$10 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $700 −$700 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $550 −$521 -95%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $1,671 −$1,645 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1,021 −$781 -76%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $307 −$300 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $304 +$213 +70%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1,218 +$1,182 +97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $205 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $610 −$471 -77%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,012 −$69 -7%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,011 −$61 -6%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 17 $302 −$7 -2%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,015 +$985 +97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $720 −$712 -99%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $308 −$300 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $509 −$500 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $558 +$480 +86%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $174 −$171 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1,525 +$1,884 +124%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,521 −$1,500 -99%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $154 −$150 -97%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $400 −$400 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $500 +$565 +113%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $613 +$1,839 +300%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $848 −$830 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,517 +$864 +57%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $410 −$400 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $305 −$300 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $508 +$578 +114%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $996 +$1,134 +114%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $205 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $62 −$60 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $893 +$370 +41%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Valorant: NRG vs Paper Rex - Map 3 Winner Mar 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoff Mar 13 $150 −$150 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs G2 Esports - Map 2 Winner Mar 13 $200 −$194 -97%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs G2 Esports - Map 1 Winner Mar 13 $120 +$195 +163%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playof Mar 13 $150 −$137 -92%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Mar 13 $200 −$200 -100%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Mar 13 $50 +$48 +95%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs All Gamers (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoff Mar 10 $101 −$100 -99%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs All Gamers - Map 2 Winner Mar 10 $119 −$69 -58%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Mar 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Mar 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Mar 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Mar 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 30¢ $224 4h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 30¢ $45 4h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 30¢ $31 4h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 6h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 35¢ $653 6h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 6h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 6h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 6h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 6h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 35¢ $24 6h
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $50 7h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 2¢ $29 32h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 20¢ $100 32h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $405 34h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $3 34h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $3 34h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $1 34h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $2 34h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $15 34h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $8 34h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $14 34h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $1,671 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 7¢ $213 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 30¢ $1,021 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 19¢ $307 2d
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 15¢ $205 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $1,218 2d
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 2d
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $304 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $309.96 · official $309.96 (match) · 208 history records