Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:43:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x39bd…c040 weather 36 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+3%) realized +$0 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%10W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -6.9% -15.8% 31% 31% -13.8%
≤30d 32 -6.9% -15.8% 31% 31% -13.8%
≤90d 32 -6.9% -15.8% 31% 31% -13.8%
all 32 -6.9% -15.8% 31% 31% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 31% -13.8%
10% -23.9% 22% -22.1%
15% -31.2% 19% -29.6%
20% -38.0% 19% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 75% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late +28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses10 / 22
Open positions4
Markets (closed)32 / 36
History coverage7d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 19? Yes 14¢ 22¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+57%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 19? Yes 10¢ 15¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+50%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 19? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 18? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 19? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +78%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? Jun 17 $1 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 18? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17? Jun 16 $1 $0 +19%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 17? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +65%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 14? Jun 15 $1 +$9 +847%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 $0 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +102%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 $0 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$5 +498%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 19? SELL Yes 27¢ $2 26m
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 18? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 19? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 19? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 19? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 16h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 18? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 40h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 40h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 45h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 47h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 17? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 17? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 14? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 15? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? SELL Yes 26¢ $2 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 14? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 5d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 13? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 14? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.90 · official $4.90 (match) · 48 history records