Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:41:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
39 0x39c1…3174 sports 113 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$138 (+2%) realized +$150 · open −$12
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate57%63W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day20.4pace
Fees−$54est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$92now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$86
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 111 +8.9% -1.5% 57% 47% -7.9%
≤30d 111 +8.9% -1.5% 57% 47% -7.9%
≤90d 111 +8.9% -1.5% 57% 47% -7.9%
all 111 +8.9% -1.5% 57% 47% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.5% 47% -7.9%
10% ← realistic here -10.9% 35% -16.7%
15% -19.5% 28% -24.8%
20% -27.4% 22% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$33 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$92
Realized+$150
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses63 / 48
Est. fees paid−$54
Open positions2
Markets (closed)111 / 113
History coverage6d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day20.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jacob Fearnley Jacob Fearnley 62¢ 64¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
ITF Tulsa: Jeffrey John Wolf vs Gavin Young Jeffrey John Wolf 87¢ 63¢ $50 $36 −$14 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set Handicap: Arnaldi (-1.5) vs Samuel (+1.5) Jun 21 $9 +$4 +46%
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5) Jun 21 $50 +$24 +48%
Set Handicap: Tomljanovic (-1.5) vs Erjavec (+1.5) Jun 21 $51 +$39 +76%
ITF Mohammedia: Daria Egorova vs Nina Vargova Jun 21 $50 −$50 -99%
ITF Zhengzhou: Evialina Laskevich vs Jiaqi Wang Jun 21 $50 +$14 +27%
ITF Tokyo: Jake Delaney vs Masamichi Imamura Jun 21 $50 +$5 +11%
ITF Taipei: Dayeon Back vs Haruka Kaji Jun 21 $50 +$7 +14%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Giles Hussey vs Marco Trungellit Jun 20 $51 −$50 -99%
Set Handicap: Marcinko (-1.5) vs Waltert (+1.5) Jun 20 $49 +$111 +226%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Indianna Spink vs Kimberly Birre Jun 20 $50 +$3 +6%
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Anastasiia Sobolieva Jun 20 $50 +$22 +44%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Shuai Zhang vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 20 $51 +$31 +62%
Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5) Jun 20 $51 +$30 +60%
Set Handicap: Badosa (-1.5) vs Kraus (+1.5) Jun 20 $51 −$2 -3%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Adela Polakovicova vs Karine Sarkisova Jun 20 $50 −$19 -37%
ITF Tauste: Yleymi Lugiana Muelle Valdez vs Celia Cervino Ruiz Jun 20 $50 −$13 -26%
Hyeon Chung vs. Masamichi Imamura: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 −$4 -7%
Blinkova vs. Putintseva: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 20 $51 −$2 -3%
Anna Blinkova vs. Yulia Putintseva: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 −$2 -3%
Set Handicap: Oz (-1.5) vs Pieri (+1.5) Jun 20 $51 −$2 -3%
ITF Klosters: Tanguy Genier vs Sandro Kopp Jun 20 $50 +$3 +7%
Zachary Svajda vs. Marc-Andrea Huesler: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Paula Badosa vs Sinja Kraus Jun 20 $50 −$18 -36%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playo Jun 20 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Group B Jun 20 $5 −$1 -16%
ITF Ystad: Madison Sieg vs Lucie Petruzelova Jun 20 $17 −$17 -98%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Ella Seidel Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $102 +$98 +97%
Set Handicap: Svitolina (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) Jun 19 $51 +$45 +90%
ITF Tokyo: Hyeon Chung vs Masamichi Imamura Jun 19 $51 −$3 -5%
ITF Milano: Georgii Kravchenko vs Giuseppe La Vela Jun 19 $50 +$16 +32%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Collignon (+1.5) Jun 19 $101 −$18 -18%
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Bartunkova (+1.5) Jun 19 $50 −$50 -99%
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Shelton (+1.5) Jun 19 $51 +$26 +52%
Set Handicap: Frodin (-1.5) vs Wobker (+1.5) Jun 19 $38 −$37 -98%
ITF Klosters: Dylan Dietrich vs Adrien Burdet Jun 19 $50 +$5 +11%
ITF Samobor: Nikita Mashtakov vs Nicolas Jadoun Jun 19 $50 +$6 +12%
Set Handicap: Wolf (-1.5) vs Langmo (+1.5) Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
ITF Taipei: Hiromi Abe vs Kayo Nishimura Jun 19 $50 +$17 +34%
ITF Saarlouis: Pieter De Lange vs Nikolai Barsukov Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
ITF Irvine: Kenta Miyoshi vs Benjamin O'connell Jun 19 $50 +$6 +12%
ITF Taipei: Yuno Kitahara vs Thasaporn Naklo Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
ITF Irvine: Patsy Daughters vs Alina Shcherbinina Jun 18 $50 +$4 +7%
ITF Tulsa: Ilyas Milad Fahim vs Jeffrey John Wolf Jun 18 $50 +$6 +12%
ITF Irvine: Noah Zamora vs Stian Klaassen Jun 18 $51 +$44 +86%
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Otto Virtanen Jun 18 $50 +$23 +46%
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Matias Soto Jun 18 $51 +$26 +52%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $51 +$37 +73%
ITF Bolszewo: Maja Pawelska vs Weronika Ewald Jun 18 $50 +$5 +10%
ITF Blois: Alevtina Ibragimova vs Amandine Hesse Jun 18 $50 +$7 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Tulsa: Jeffrey John Wolf vs Gavin Young BUY Jeffrey John Wolf 87¢ $50 1h
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5) BUY Tiafoe 67¢ $50 5h
ITF Mohammedia: Daria Egorova vs Nina Vargova BUY Nina Vargova 78¢ $50 6h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Jacob Fearnley 62¢ $51 9h
Set Handicap: Tomljanovic (-1.5) vs Erjavec (+1.5) BUY Tomljanovic 56¢ $51 10h
ITF Tokyo: Jake Delaney vs Masamichi Imamura BUY Jake Delaney 90¢ $50 15h
ITF Zhengzhou: Evialina Laskevich vs Jiaqi Wang BUY Evialina Laskevich 78¢ $50 16h
ITF Taipei: Dayeon Back vs Haruka Kaji BUY Dayeon Back 87¢ $50 17h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Giles Hussey vs Marco Trungellit BUY Marco Trungelliti 54¢ $51 19h
Set Handicap: Arnaldi (-1.5) vs Samuel (+1.5) BUY Samuel 68¢ $9 23h
Set Handicap: Marcinko (-1.5) vs Waltert (+1.5) BUY Waltert 30¢ $49 26h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Indianna Spink vs Kimberly Birre BUY Kimberly Birrell 94¢ $50 28h
Zachary Svajda vs. Marc-Andrea Huesler: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 39¢ $2 30h
ITF Klosters: Tanguy Genier vs Sandro Kopp BUY Sandro Kopp 94¢ $50 31h
Set Handicap: Badosa (-1.5) vs Kraus (+1.5) BUY Badosa 51¢ $51 31h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playo BUY 4ikibamboni 54¢ $51 31h
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY Clutchain 60¢ $5 32h
ITF Ystad: Madison Sieg vs Lucie Petruzelova BUY Lucie Petruzelova 14¢ $17 33h
Blinkova vs. Putintseva: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 51¢ $51 35h
Anna Blinkova vs. Yulia Putintseva: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 51¢ $51 35h
Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5) BUY Cerundolo 62¢ $51 35h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Paula Badosa vs Sinja Kraus BUY Paula Badosa 78¢ $50 43h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Shuai Zhang vs Gabriela Ruse BUY Gabriela Ruse 61¢ $51 43h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Ella Seidel BUY Ella Seidel 38¢ $51 43h
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Anastasiia Sobolieva BUY Xiyu Wang 69¢ $50 2d
Set Handicap: Svitolina (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) BUY Eala 52¢ $51 2d
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Collignon (+1.5) BUY Zverev 60¢ $51 2d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 50¢ $51 2d
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Bartunkova (+1.5) BUY Sabalenka 71¢ $50 2d
ITF Milano: Georgii Kravchenko vs Giuseppe La Vela BUY Georgii Kravchenko 75¢ $50 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.39 · official $92.39 (match) · 198 history records