Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T01:15:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
39 0x39c5…22f7 sports 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$825 (+32%) realized +$611 · open +$214
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +92% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +74% what you keep after slip
Net edge+74%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%6W / 10L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$154per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$313now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$782
14 days+$570
30 days+$808
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$594
other 5% +$438
politics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+73.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +256.6% +222.6% 33% 33% +241.5%
≤30d 16 +91.8% +73.5% 38% 38% +19.8%
≤90d 16 +91.8% +73.5% 38% 38% +19.8%
all 16 +91.8% +73.5% 38% 38% +19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +73.5% 38% +19.8%
10% +56.9% 38% +8.3%
15% +41.8% 38% -2.2%
20% +27.9% 31% -11.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +92% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +169% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$341 vs −$124 · ×2.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.65 per $1 lost it wins $1.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$313
Realized+$611
Unrealized+$214
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses6 / 10
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage15d
Avg bet$154
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 Under 9¢ 28¢ $99 $313 +$214 (+217%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $88 −$85 -97%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Neither team to score first? Jun 24 $99 −$97 -98%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $100 +$965 +970%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $101 −$99 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$101 +982%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $242 −$239 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $203 −$200 -99%
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? Jun 14 $444 +$325 +73%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $364 +$182 +50%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $236 +$129 +55%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 +$348 +340%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 9¢ $102 1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 8¢ $88 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 24¢ $99 2d
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 0.5 BUY Under 9¢ $100 3d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY No 27¢ $101 10d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $242 11d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $304 11d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 12d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 12d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 58¢ $203 12d
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? BUY Yes 57¢ $444 12d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $102 12d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $364 13d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Under 64¢ $236 13d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 22¢ $102 14d
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 14d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $450 14d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $313.17 · official $313.28 (match) · 23 history records