Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:32:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

39
0x39c5…9953
other · 492 markets active 4h ago
0.0score
−$89 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$86 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$117
Realized−$86
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses447 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$63
Open positions1
Markets (closed)491 / 492
History coverage140d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%
Chart Positions 1 History 491 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$88
7 days+$22
14 days+$17
30 days+$373
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Bilibili Gaming 94¢ 92¢ $120 $117 −$3 (-2%)
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Bilibili Gaming 94¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? No 89¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Movistar KOI 87¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner T1 75¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 4 Winner Bilibili Gaming 88¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $150 +$11 +7%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $60 +$13 +22%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $141 +$33 +24%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $100 +$8 +8%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $40 −$40 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $281 −$113 -40%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $30 −$24 -80%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $110 −$26 -23%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $82 +$18 +22%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $250 +$15 +6%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $151 +$27 +18%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $42 +$16 +38%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $131 +$23 +17%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $79 +$5 +7%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 06 $40 −$8 -20%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $150 +$5 +3%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 06 $39 +$3 +7%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $101 +$28 +28%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 06 $100 +$13 +13%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $20 +$4 +20%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $76 −$7 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $60 +$11 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $90 +$9 +10%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $140 +$15 +11%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $120 +$8 +6%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $60 +$28 +47%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 01 $30 +$6 +20%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $51 +$25 +50%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $50 +$4 +8%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $100 +$2 +2%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $100 +$18 +18%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 30 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $50 +$2 +3%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $100 +$14 +14%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 4 Winner May 30 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers - Game 2 Winner May 30 $50 +$1 +2%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $100 +$7 +7%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $100 +$8 +8%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 30 $100 +$2 +2%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $100 +$2 +2%
LoL: Gen.G vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $251 +$21 +8%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $150 +$15 +10%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 29 $50 +$6 +12%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $151 +$22 +15%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $101 +$34 +34%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $81 +$28 +35%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner May 28 $20 +$3 +13%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $20 +$9 +46%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner May 27 $50 +$14 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 40% −$987
other 28% +$203
sports 27% +$812
tech 2% +$15
weather 2% −$153
finance 0% +$12
politics 0% +$9
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 91¢ $10 3h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 95¢ $20 3h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 94¢ $20 3h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 93¢ $20 3h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 94¢ $10 3h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 95¢ $30 3h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 94¢ $20 3h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 88¢ $20 3h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Hanwha Life Esports 95¢ $20 3h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Hanwha Life Esports 77¢ $10 3h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 96¢ $20 4h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 91¢ $30 4h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 84¢ $30 4h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 80¢ $10 4h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 80¢ $10 4h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 76¢ $10 4h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 71¢ $10 5h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 62¢ $20 5h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 94¢ $10 5h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 94¢ $10 5h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 95¢ $10 5h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 94¢ $10 5h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 95¢ $20 5h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 93¢ $10 5h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 94¢ $20 5h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 80¢ $10 5h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Hanwha Life Esports 76¢ $30 5h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 79¢ $20 6h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 71¢ $20 6h
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 46¢ $70 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.3% -9.8% 74% 43% -8.7%
≤30d 132 +0.6% -9.0% 86% 30% -7.3%
≤90d 238 +0.5% -9.1% 89% 21% -7.1%
all 491 +0.8% -8.8% 91% 13% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 13% -9.7%
10% -17.5% 4% -18.3%
15% -25.5% 1% -26.2%
20% -32.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.02 · official $117.02 (match) · 2426 history records