Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:23:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
39 0x39c6…0ac1 sports 1068 markets active 1h ago coverage 112d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 112d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,999 (-2%) realized −$7,006 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%504W / 726L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$309per market
Trades / day24.9pace
Fees−$1,313est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,037now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 112d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$5,275
other 0% +$426
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 225 -89.2% -90.3% 4% 4% -87.4%
≤30d 319 -56.5% -60.7% 21% 20% -66.4%
≤90d 832 -24.6% -31.7% 38% 37% -39.2%
all 1230 -18.6% -26.3% 41% 40% -28.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.3% 40% -28.6%
10% ← realistic here -33.4% 37% -35.4%
15% -39.8% 34% -41.6%
20% -45.7% 30% -47.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$253 vs −$294 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$1,037
Realized−$7,006
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses504 / 726
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$1,313
Open positions21
Markets (closed)1230 / 1068
History coverage112d ⚠
Avg bet$309
Trades / day24.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 1230 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) Uzbekistan 84¢ 82¢ $183 $180 −$3 (-2%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 72¢ 75¢ $78 $82 +$4 (+5%)
KBO: LG Twins vs. Samsung Lions LG Twins 52¢ 53¢ $79 $81 +$2 (+2%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Under 60¢ 56¢ $81 $76 −$5 (-6%)
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Ecuador 47¢ 70¢ $49 $73 +$24 (+49%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 Under 39¢ 40¢ $69 $70 +$1 (+1%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Over 43¢ 40¢ $57 $54 −$3 (-6%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 56¢ 50¢ $59 $54 −$6 (-10%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Max Holloway 78¢ 66¢ $58 $49 −$9 (-15%)
Harry Kane: 5+ shots No 58¢ 64¢ $44 $48 +$4 (+9%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 58¢ 57¢ $44 $43 −$0 (-1%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Over 49¢ 50¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: France (-2.5) Iraq 52¢ 48¢ $41 $38 −$4 (-9%)
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jordan 67¢ 64¢ $34 $32 −$1 (-4%)
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 78¢ 82¢ $28 $30 +$2 (+6%)
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Morocco 45¢ 52¢ $18 $21 +$3 (+17%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Over 52¢ 50¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-3%)
Pedro Neto: 3+ shots No 59¢ 72¢ $12 $14 +$3 (+22%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Qatar 58¢ 48¢ $16 $14 −$3 (-16%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) New Zealand 45¢ 42¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-6%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score No 69¢ 69¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 479 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Timberwolves vs. Bucks Jun 17 $2,427 −$2,427 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-17.5) Jun 17 $1,154 −$1,154 -100%
Dillon Brooks: Points O/U 22.5 Jun 17 $47 −$47 -100%
LIU Sharks vs. Mercyhurst Lakers Jun 17 $752 −$752 -100%
Aaron Wiggins: Points O/U 12.5 Jun 17 $382 −$382 -100%
Spread: Idaho Vandals (-3.5) Jun 17 $64 −$64 -100%
Spread: Indiana (-4.5) Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Pelicans vs. Timberwolves Jun 17 $115 −$115 -100%
ASB Classic: Nuno Borges vs Eliot Spizzirri Jun 17 $2,122 −$2,122 -100%
Spread: Timberwolves (-10.5) Jun 17 $54 −$54 -100%
Merida Open Akron: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Heather Watson Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Steelers vs. Lions: O/U 51.5 Jun 17 $159 −$159 -100%
Liberty Flames vs. Dayton Flyers: O/U 143.5 Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Fairleigh Dickinson Knights vs. Chicago State Cougars Jun 17 $98 −$98 -100%
Saint Mary's Gaels vs. Seattle Redhawks: O/U 136.5 Jun 17 $108 −$108 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-16.5) Jun 17 $530 −$530 -100%
Saints vs. Falcons: O/U 43.5 Jun 17 $1,328 −$1,328 -100%
Dallas Open: Adam Walton vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 17 $802 −$802 -100%
Rockets vs. Kings Jun 17 $2,071 −$2,071 -100%
Mexican Open: Valentin Vacherot vs Coleman Wong Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Spread: Auburn Tigers (-2.5) Jun 17 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Missouri Tigers Jun 17 $74 −$74 -100%
Clippers vs. Rockets: O/U 214.5 Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
California-San Diego Tritons vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (W) Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Kraken vs. Ducks Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Manhattan Jaspers vs. Niagara Purple Eagles: O/U 136.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Rockets vs. Kings Jun 17 $494 −$494 -100%
Spread: Utah State Aggies (-21.5) Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-6.5) Jun 17 $59 −$59 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 17 $473 −$473 -100%
Commanders vs. Eagles Jun 17 $286 −$286 -100%
Stony Brook Seawolves vs. William & Mary Tribe Jun 17 $61 −$61 -100%
Rotterdam Open, Qualification: Pablo Carreno Busta vs Roberto Carballe Jun 17 $855 −$855 -100%
Bowling Green Falcons vs. Western Michigan Broncos: O/U 153.5 Jun 17 $644 −$644 -100%
Bulls vs. Celtics: O/U 224.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Le Moyne Dolphins (-2.5) Jun 17 $198 −$198 -100%
Zalgiris Kaunas vs. Hapoel Tel Aviv Jun 17 $116 −$116 -100%
Hobart International: Iva Jovic vs Janice Tjen Jun 17 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Nuggets vs. Celtics Jun 17 $672 −$672 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5 Jun 17 $207 −$207 -100%
LIU Sharks vs. Mercyhurst Lakers: O/U 135.5 Jun 17 $750 −$750 -100%
Brisbane International: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Anna Blinkova Jun 17 $268 −$268 -100%
Drexel Dragons vs. Northeastern Huskies Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Mercyhurst Lakers vs. Wagner Seahawks Jun 17 $332 −$332 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Alexander Zverev vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 17 $319 −$319 -100%
Spread: Raptors (-11.5) Jun 17 $116 −$116 -100%
Heat vs. Pelicans Jun 17 $59 −$59 -100%
Clippers vs. Kings Jun 17 $116 −$116 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 231.5 Jun 17 $58 −$58 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $71 1h
Harry Kane: 5+ shots BUY No 58¢ $21 2h
Harry Kane: 5+ shots BUY No 58¢ $12 2h
Pedro Neto: 3+ shots BUY No 59¢ $12 2h
Harry Kane: 5+ shots BUY No 58¢ $12 2h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 49¢ $43 3h
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 84¢ $184 20h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 176.5 BUY Over 55¢ $292 20h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 78¢ $28 21h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $58 39h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 45¢ $14 40h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 69¢ $8 41h
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle BUY Elias Ymer 42¢ $6 2d
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Ann Li 49¢ $9 2d
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Ann Li 49¢ $10 2d
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle BUY Elias Ymer 42¢ $2 2d
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin BUY Sofia Kenin 39¢ $20 2d
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova BUY Anastasia Potapova 48¢ $46 2d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 31¢ $50 2d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 31¢ $27 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 60¢ $82 2d
Nottingham 2: Yunchaokete Bu vs Otto Virtanen BUY Yunchaokete Bu 49¢ $13 3d
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 24¢ $28 3d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 87¢ $31 3d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 86¢ $16 3d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 49¢ $6 3d
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) BUY Knicks 66¢ $19 3d
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) BUY Knicks 66¢ $2 3d
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) BUY Knicks 66¢ $12 3d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 49¢ $197 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,037.42 · official $1,037.43 (match) · 3500 history records