Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:49:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x39c9…0c8f crypto 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$93 (+11%) realized +$93 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%15W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day18.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$29
sports 5% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -12.1% -20.5% 45% 45% -14.2%
≤30d 33 -12.1% -20.5% 45% 45% -14.2%
≤90d 33 -12.1% -20.5% 45% 45% -14.2%
all 33 -12.1% -20.5% 45% 45% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.5% 45% -14.2%
10% -28.1% 45% -22.4%
15% -35.0% 45% -29.9%
20% -41.4% 33% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$21 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$93
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses15 / 18
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage3d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day18.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 19 $72 −$70 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$14 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$10 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 18 $41 −$39 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 18 $39 +$82 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 18 $67 +$24 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 18 $56 +$21 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 18 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$14 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 18 $65 −$61 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$2 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$34 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $36 +$13 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$21 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$20 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$19 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$22 +213%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$18 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15 +$16 +103%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $39 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $121 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $91 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $67 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $27 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 71 history records