Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:08:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x39cd…ee6d sports 9 markets active 11d ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$47 (-8%) realized −$47 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate78%7W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day22.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 9 -0.6% -10.0% 78% 56% -16.8%
≤90d 9 -0.6% -10.0% 78% 56% -16.8%
all 9 -0.6% -10.0% 78% 56% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 56% -16.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 11% -24.8%
15% -26.5% 11% -32.0%
20% -33.7% 0% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$67 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses7 / 2
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage2d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day22.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $135 −$134 -100%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 18 $121 +$13 +11%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 17 $104 +$17 +16%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $70 +$34 +49%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $58 +$12 +20%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $49 +$8 +17%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $1 $0 -20%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $48 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner BUY ECHO 93¢ $4 11d
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner BUY ECHO 93¢ $60 11d
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner BUY ECHO 93¢ $30 11d
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner BUY ECHO 74¢ $20 11d
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner BUY ECHO 75¢ $20 11d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League SELL Infinite 99¢ $135 11d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 94¢ $41 11d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 93¢ $40 11d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 87¢ $20 11d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 76¢ $20 11d
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch SELL Nuclear TigeRES 99¢ $121 12d
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 86¢ $4 12d
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 85¢ $100 12d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 1 Winner SELL illwill 100¢ $1 12d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 1 Winner SELL illwill 99¢ $103 12d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 1 Winner BUY illwill 84¢ $3 12d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 1 Winner BUY illwill 85¢ $40 12d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL illwill 55¢ $1 12d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL illwill 55¢ $3 12d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL illwill 55¢ $3 12d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL illwill 55¢ $3 12d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL illwill 55¢ $3 12d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL illwill 55¢ $3 12d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL illwill 55¢ $6 12d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 1 Winner BUY illwill 61¢ $6 12d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 1 Winner BUY illwill 45¢ $20 12d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 47¢ $5 12d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 55¢ $6 12d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 58¢ $10 12d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner SELL KOLESIE 99¢ $70 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 46 history records