Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:10:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x39ce…e2bd crypto 61 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (178 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$952 (-5%) realized −$804 · open −$148
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate68%40W / 19L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$287per market
Trades / day178.0pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$452now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% +$50
sports 26% −$605
other 3% −$587
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (178 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 +0.2% -9.4% 68% 58% -15.1%
≤30d 59 +0.2% -9.4% 68% 58% -15.1%
≤90d 59 +0.2% -9.4% 68% 58% -15.1%
all 59 +0.2% -9.4% 68% 58% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover178.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 58% -15.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 47% -23.2%
15% -26.0% 25% -30.6%
20% -33.2% 19% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$98 vs −$258 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$452
Realized−$804
Unrealized−$148
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses40 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions2
Markets (closed)59 / 61
History coverage1d
Avg bet$287
Trades / day178.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Ann Li 55¢ 47¢ $300 $256 −$44 (-15%)
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 76¢ 50¢ $300 $195 −$105 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $203 +$67 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $409 −$300 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $205 +$94 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $406 +$123 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$83 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $203 +$52 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $245 +$123 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $202 +$30 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $204 +$61 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $102 +$27 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $613 −$200 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $403 +$36 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $307 +$135 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $305 −$300 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $407 +$144 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $604 +$54 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $604 +$47 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $331 +$66 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $310 −$300 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $407 +$120 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $206 +$140 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$65 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $402 +$17 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $305 +$86 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $205 +$34 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $302 +$36 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $303 +$50 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $313 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $202 +$24 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $204 +$69 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $507 +$114 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $308 −$300 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $203 +$49 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $106 +$499 +471%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $105 +$204 +195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$82 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$59 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $203 +$49 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $203 +$51 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Ann Li 55¢ $304 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $271 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $101 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $103 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $104 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $134 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $102 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $102 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $102 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $102 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $102 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $102 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $528 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $101 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $100 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $101 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $187 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $255 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $101 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $102 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $369 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 55m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $451.76 · official $451.76 (match) · 189 history records