Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:31:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x39cf…6b4d other 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$62 (-2%) realized −$58 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%12W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$311
30 days−$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$329
other 43% −$424
crypto 6% +$60
world 1% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 52 +10.3% -0.2% 23% 23% -11.6%
≤90d 52 +10.3% -0.2% 23% 23% -11.6%
all 52 +10.3% -0.2% 23% 23% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.2% 23% -11.6%
10% -9.8% 21% -20.1%
15% -18.5% 21% -27.8%
20% -26.5% 19% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$174 vs −$54 · ×3.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized−$58
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses12 / 40
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage16d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $102 $98 −$4 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$127 +250%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $203 +$189 +93%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $21 +$143 +696%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $21 +$300 +1461%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 2 Tunisia? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $203 −$200 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $202 +$106 +52%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $204 −$17 -8%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 3 Scotland? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -97%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $202 −$200 -99%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $202 −$200 -99%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $204 +$510 +250%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $404 +$64 +16%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $202 +$137 +67%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $31 +$281 +913%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 2 Czechia? Jun 12 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 2 Czechia? Jun 12 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $151 +$63 +42%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 11 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $153 −$150 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $50 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 10d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $202 10d
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 10d
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 10d
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 10d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $20 10d
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 10d
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 10d
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 10d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 10d
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? SELL Yes 43¢ $164 11d
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 11d
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 2 Tunisia? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 11d
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 11d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 11d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 11d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 11d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 11d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 11d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $203 11d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $203 11d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 12d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 38¢ $186 12d
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 12d
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 0 Türkiye? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 12d
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 12d
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 3 Scotland? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 12d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 39¢ $102 12d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $202 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.58 · official $97.58 (match) · 86 history records