Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:21:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x39d0…8492 crypto 1280 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 91d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$139 (+0%) realized +$139 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate84%1072W / 208L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day23.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days−$19
14 days−$1
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$469
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 +0.4% -9.1% 95% 5% -10.4%
≤30d 145 +1.7% -7.9% 96% 8% -8.7%
≤90d 1204 -5.4% -14.4% 86% 17% -8.0%
all 1280 -5.0% -14.1% 84% 17% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.1% 17% -8.1%
10% ← realistic here -22.3% 4% -16.9%
15% -29.8% 2% -24.9%
20% -36.7% 0% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$9 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$139
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses1072 / 208
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1280 / 1280
History coverage92d ⚠
Avg bet$24
Trades / day23.8
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1280 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $32 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $44 +$1 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $39 +$3 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $38 +$4 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $48 +$2 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $19 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $48 +$2 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $14 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $45 +$4 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$2 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $34 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $46 +$2 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $43 +$4 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $18 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $45 +$2 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $44 +$3 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $38 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $48 −$48 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $33 +$2 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $18 +$1 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $42 +$2 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $48 +$3 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$1 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$1 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $23 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $23 −$23 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $23 +$3 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $22 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $12 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $24 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $32 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $44 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $39 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $38 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $48 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $19 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $6 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $17 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $14 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $45 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $40 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $14 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $46 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $43 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $18 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $45 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $44 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $38 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $48 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $28 22h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $18 23h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $21 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $41 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records