Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:10:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
39 0x39d0…4fe8 world 90 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d ⚠
BOTnot copyable world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 20d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (164 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$140,650 (+100%) realized +$116,893 · open +$23,757
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +95% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +44% what you keep after slip
Net edge+44%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate75%44W / 15L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$1,558per market
Trades / day164.1pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$102,829now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 21d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% +$20,451
other 15% +$10,647
crypto 11% +$2,182
politics 11% +$5,097
tech 4% +$163
finance 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (164 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+76.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +11.4% +0.8% 73% 42% -1.0%
≤30d 59 +95.3% +76.7% 75% 51% +6.1%
≤90d 59 +95.3% +76.7% 75% 51% +6.1%
all 59 +95.3% +76.7% 75% 51% +6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover164.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +76.7% 51% +6.1%
10% +59.8% 29% -4.0%
15% ← realistic here +44.3% 19% -13.3%
20% +30.2% 14% -21.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +95% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$1,204) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +180% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
25.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$381 vs −$131 · ×2.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.51 per $1 lost it wins $8.51
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$102,829
Realized+$116,893
Unrealized+$23,757
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses44 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions45
Markets (closed)59 / 90
History coverage21d ⚠
Avg bet$1,558
Trades / day164.1
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 45 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 68¢ 100¢ $13,549 $19,970 +$6,421 (+47%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 68¢ 88¢ $14,399 $18,549 +$4,150 (+29%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 60¢ 90¢ $6,310 $9,514 +$3,204 (+51%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 69¢ 99¢ $4,946 $7,087 +$2,141 (+43%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 54¢ 100¢ $3,716 $6,864 +$3,149 (+85%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 79¢ 92¢ $4,466 $5,202 +$736 (+16%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 78¢ 99¢ $3,877 $4,927 +$1,050 (+27%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 73¢ 81¢ $3,633 $4,075 +$442 (+12%)
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? No 74¢ 96¢ $2,483 $3,203 +$720 (+29%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 70¢ 56¢ $3,414 $2,737 −$677 (-20%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 83¢ 99¢ $1,496 $1,788 +$292 (+20%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $1,772 $1,779 +$7 (+0%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $1,478 $1,480 +$2 (+0%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 72¢ 88¢ $1,195 $1,454 +$259 (+22%)
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 99¢ $1,212 $1,435 +$223 (+18%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? No 79¢ 88¢ $956 $1,062 +$106 (+11%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $734 $970 +$237 (+32%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 98¢ $782 $872 +$89 (+11%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $875 $789 −$87 (-10%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 52¢ 74¢ $554 $785 +$231 (+42%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 60¢ 90¢ $502 $749 +$247 (+49%)
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? No 60¢ 60¢ $744 $736 −$8 (-1%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? No 55¢ 92¢ $396 $663 +$267 (+68%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 48¢ 62¢ $480 $615 +$135 (+28%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 79¢ 88¢ $540 $601 +$62 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 17 $3,364 +$410 +12%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $743 +$10 +1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $96 +$3 +3%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $246 +$54 +22%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $451 +$44 +10%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $8,055 +$1,871 +23%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 15 $55 +$11 +21%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 15 $35 +$33 +95%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $4,258 −$193 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $484 −$484 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $5,340 +$426 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $1,523 +$317 +21%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 15 $2 +$1 +43%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $706 −$2 -0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 14 $295 +$23 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 13 $173 +$22 +13%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $240 +$11 +5%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 12 $112 −$22 -20%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $3,184 −$133 -4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $2,308 +$385 +17%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $172 −$115 -67%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 12 $497 +$65 +13%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 12 $384 +$851 +222%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 11 $237 +$23 +10%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 11 $415 −$246 -59%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $4,472 +$200 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $510 +$391 +77%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 08 $395 +$18 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $1,637 +$546 +33%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $503 −$8 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $43 +$14 +32%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $382 +$8 +2%
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Jun 07 $33 +$144 +437%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 06 $266 +$67 +25%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 06 $209 +$52 +25%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 06 $541 +$2,583 +477%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 05 $79 +$2 +2%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $54 +$1,760 +3259%
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of Jun 05 $144 −$18 -12%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Jun 04 $21 +$1,318 +6248%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $13,963 +$1,812 +13%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $122 −$7 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,202 +$158 +13%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $3,567 +$370 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,204 +$895 +74%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? May 31 $3 +$1 +43%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? May 31 $31 +$4 +14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? May 31 $2,565 +$668 +26%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $2,724 +$597 +22%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? May 30 $87 +$19 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 60¢ $26 1m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 42¢ $42 4m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 42¢ $20 4m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 44¢ $22 4m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 42¢ $1 4m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 44¢ $40 4m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 40¢ $18 10m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 40¢ $2 10m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 41¢ $16 14m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 57¢ $57 15m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 42¢ $21 16m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 57¢ $28 17m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 43¢ $22 23m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 44¢ $22 23m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 57¢ $28 26m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 46¢ $23 27m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 48¢ $0 32m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 48¢ $18 32m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 48¢ $1 32m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 48¢ $1 32m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 48¢ $2 32m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 48¢ $1 32m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 49¢ $70 34m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 35¢ $11 35m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 35¢ $2 35m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 35¢ $2 35m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 38¢ $19 35m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 39¢ $31 35m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 40¢ $20 35m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 35¢ $1 35m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102,828.89 · official $102,819.13 (match) · 3500 history records