Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:31:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

39
0x39d2…f545
weather · 72 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$18 -15%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$14 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$7
Realized−$14
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses28 / 33
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)61 / 72
History coverage25d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 11 History 61 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$7
14 days−$11
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? Yes 11¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+50%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? Yes 27¢ 32¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 12? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 12? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 12? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 12? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-37%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 12? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-43%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 80°F or higher on June 12? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-55%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 13? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-82%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 100°F or higher on June 13? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-87%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 12? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on June Jun 12 $1 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 6? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 6? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 6? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Lennar Q2 deliveries be above 17,500? Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will Lennar Q2 deliveries be above 20,000? Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Will United Natural Foods (UNFI) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 09 $3 +$4 +145%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 7? Jun 07 $2 −$1 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 6? Jun 06 $1 +$1 +77%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 6? Jun 06 $1 +$5 +506%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 6? Jun 06 $1 +$5 +503%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on June Jun 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 06 $1 −$1 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 7? Jun 06 $2 −$1 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 7? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on June 7? Jun 06 $2 −$1 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 7? Jun 06 $2 −$1 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 7? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -78%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 1? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 06 $6 −$3 -44%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5) Jun 06 $4 −$3 -76%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on June 7? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5 Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 06 $3 $0 +4%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 06 $3 $0 +5%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 12.5 Jun 06 $3 +$3 +107%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 5? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CrowdStrike Q1 net new ARR be above $300M? Jun 04 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 03 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1 $0 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 23 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 23 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 22 $2 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 20 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 20 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 20 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 19 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 19 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 19 $2 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 39% −$8
weather 32% −$5
sports 21% −$8
finance 3% +$3
other 2% $0
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 100°F or higher on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 100°F or higher on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 100°F or higher on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12? SELL Yes 49¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 80°F or higher on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 12? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 12? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on June SELL Yes 18¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 12? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on June BUY Yes 19¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 12? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 10h
Will Lennar Q2 deliveries be above 20,000? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 18h
Will Lennar Q2 deliveries be above 17,500? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? BUY No 6¢ $1 21h
Will United Natural Foods (UNFI) beat quarterly earnings? SELL No 100¢ $6 2d
Will United Natural Foods (UNFI) beat quarterly earnings? BUY No 30¢ $2 3d
Will United Natural Foods (UNFI) beat quarterly earnings? BUY No 87¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 7? SELL No 99¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 6? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 6? SELL Yes 89¢ $6 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 6? SELL Yes 88¢ $6 5d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 6? SELL No 100¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -3.2% -12.5% 35% 16% -20.7%
≤30d 61 -11.2% -19.6% 46% 25% -21.4%
≤90d 61 -11.2% -19.6% 46% 25% -21.4%
all 61 -11.2% -19.6% 46% 25% -21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 25% -21.4%
10% -27.3% 16% -28.9%
15% -34.4% 11% -35.8%
20% -40.8% 8% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.49 · official $7.39 (match) · 184 history records