Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:39:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x39d3…9ef0 sports 187 markets active 2h ago coverage 24d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 24d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (134 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$963,196 (+63%) realized +$962,919 · open +$277
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%79W / 108L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$8,160per market
Trades / day134.3pace
Fees−$13,366est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$7,773now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 24d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$7,885
other 42% +$249,043
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (134 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -43.8% -49.1% 27% 27% -36.8%
≤30d 187 -7.0% -15.9% 42% 42% +5.7%
≤90d 187 -7.0% -15.9% 42% 42% +5.7%
all 187 -7.0% -15.9% 42% 42% +5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover134.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.9% 42% +5.7%
10% -23.9% 42% -4.4%
15% ← realistic here -31.3% 41% -13.7%
20% -38.0% 39% -22.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +17% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$8,164) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
17.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11,661 vs −$6,153 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$7,773
Realized+$962,919
Unrealized+$277
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses79 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$13,366
Open positions2
Markets (closed)187 / 187
History coverage24d ⚠
Avg bet$8,160
Trades / day134.3
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 187 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 48¢ 50¢ $7,439 $7,747 +$308 (+4%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 25¢ 12¢ $56 $26 −$30 (-54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $62,185 +$65,243 +105%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $12,287 +$29,403 +239%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $844 +$481 +57%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $14,526 −$14,526 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $25,587 +$6,326 +25%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $3,894 +$3,431 +88%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $4,879 −$4,879 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2,111 +$3,375 +160%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $4,609 +$3,366 +73%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $326 −$326 -100%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $592 −$592 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5,959 −$5,959 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $10,139 −$10,139 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $15,740 −$15,740 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $77,256 −$77,256 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $3,482 −$3,482 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 14 $748 −$748 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $3,159 −$3,159 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $3,394 −$3,394 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $3,774 −$3,774 -100%
Czechia to score first vs. Korea Republic? Jun 14 $337 −$337 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $47,189 −$47,189 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 14 $313 −$313 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 14 $1,063 −$1,063 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 14 $13,871 −$13,871 -100%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $1,974 −$1,974 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $7,047 +$9,960 +141%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $287 +$163 +57%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $476 +$724 +152%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5,804 +$6,352 +109%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $282 +$297 +105%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 10 $113 −$113 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 10 $293 −$293 -100%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 10 $565 −$565 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 10 $511 −$511 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 10 $897 −$897 -100%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $2,003 −$2,003 -100%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5) Jun 10 $909 −$909 -100%
Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5) Jun 10 $1,001 −$1,001 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Ariane Carnelossi vs. Ketlen Souza (Women's Strawweig Jun 10 $1,039 −$1,039 -100%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5) Jun 10 $1,014 −$1,014 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $1,065 −$1,065 -100%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) Jun 10 $1,126 −$1,126 -100%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5) Jun 10 $1,129 −$1,129 -100%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5) Jun 10 $1,316 −$1,316 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Yuneisy Duben vs. Jeisla Chaves (Women's Flyweight, P Jun 10 $1,413 −$1,413 -100%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5) Jun 10 $1,446 −$1,446 -100%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) Jun 10 $1,504 −$1,504 -100%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) Jun 10 $1,593 −$1,593 -100%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 10 $1,822 −$1,822 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 49¢ $3,238 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $3,194 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $23,765 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $3,172 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $3,175 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai SELL Mauricio Ruffy 100¢ $31,913 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $25,640 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $9,998 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 80¢ $293 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 80¢ $1,600 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 80¢ $6 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 80¢ $80 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 80¢ $6 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 80¢ $1,600 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 80¢ $6 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 80¢ $5 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 80¢ $6 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 80¢ $40 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 80¢ $6 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 80¢ $6 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 80¢ $4 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 80¢ $100 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 80¢ $6 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 80¢ $80 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 80¢ $16 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 80¢ $84 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 80¢ $4 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 80¢ $6 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 80¢ $302 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 80¢ $1,600 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,773.15 · official $7,773.15 (match) · 3500 history records