Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:52:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

39
0x39d4…3361
crypto · 217 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$7 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$6 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Net worth$25
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses126 / 75
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions16
Markets (closed)201 / 217
History coverage30d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 16 History 201 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$1
14 days−$11
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 79¢ 78¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 74¢ 72¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 67¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 66¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 20¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 Jun 12 $2 $0 -2%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 12 $1 $0 -24%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$2 +88%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $7 +$1 +20%
Ilkley: Mimi Xu vs Elizabeth Mandlik Jun 10 $6 $0 +6%
Modena: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Pavel Kotov Jun 09 $17 +$1 +3%
Ilkley: Lucrezia Stefanini vs Vendula Valdmannova Jun 09 $1 $0 +41%
Ilkley: Billy Harris vs Clement Chidekh Jun 09 $1 +$1 +61%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 08 $2 +$4 +193%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 08 $2 +$3 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 08 $1 $0 +6%
Modena: Jeline Vandromme vs Angela Fita Boluda Jun 08 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +2%
Tyler: Landon Ardila vs Timo Legout Jun 05 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 05 $2 $0 +21%
Makarska: Petra Marcinko vs Barbora Palicova Jun 04 $5 +$10 +197%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 04 $11 +$2 +16%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 03 $11 +$2 +14%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $5 +$1 +24%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 03 $5 −$4 -71%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $1 $0 +5%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $1 $0 +26%
Will Brazil win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $1 $0 +13%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals May 31 $5 +$1 +20%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 31 $6 $0 +2%
Will United States win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $1 $0 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 31 $1 +$1 +64%
Will Czechia win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 31 $2 −$1 -50%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 30 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 30 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 30 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 30 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 30 $1 +$1 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 30 $6 +$3 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 72% +$11
other 14% −$18
sports 13% +$2
world 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 SELL Yes 67¢ $2 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $5 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 2h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 2h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $1 3h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 6h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 6h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 66¢ $1 15h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 BUY Yes 66¢ $1 15h
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 87¢ $1 15h
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 55¢ $1 19h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $4 19h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 20h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes $0 20h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 20h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 20h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 25h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 27h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 27h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 27h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 27h
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 27h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 86¢ $6 28h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 30h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 30h
Ilkley: Mimi Xu vs Elizabeth Mandlik BUY Elizabeth Mandlik 94¢ $6 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -5.7% -14.7% 59% 36% -7.6%
≤30d 196 -8.0% -16.7% 63% 49% -9.6%
≤90d 201 -8.6% -17.3% 63% 48% -10.1%
all 201 -8.6% -17.3% 63% 48% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 48% -10.1%
10% -25.2% 36% -18.7%
15% -32.4% 27% -26.6%
20% -39.1% 16% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.71 · official $24.71 (match) · 507 history records