Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:51:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x39e1…0b0a other 257 markets active 2h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$82 (-0%) realized −$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%15W / 242L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$242per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$18
14 days−$31
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$26
sports 22% −$29
politics 10% −$10
economics 8% −$10
culture 6% −$9
crypto 6% −$8
world 4% −$3
tech 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 69 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 156 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 257 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses15 / 242
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)257 / 257
History coverage148d
Avg bet$242
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 257 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $490 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 27 $443 −$1 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 27 $169 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $352 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 27 $55 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 26 $391 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 26 $185 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 26 $202 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 26 $904 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $479 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $502 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 25 $464 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 25 $157 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 25 $555 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 25 $836 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 24 $156 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 24 $252 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 24 $197 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 24 $201 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 23 $490 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $996 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 22 $130 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 22 $366 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 21 $510 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 21 $403 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 21 $262 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 20 $289 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $819 −$2 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $111 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $412 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $268 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $258 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $563 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $133 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $309 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $824 −$2 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $406 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $507 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $651 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $24 $0 -1%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $196 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $128 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $130 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $385 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $937 −$2 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $105 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $142 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $64 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $55 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $55 2h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $55 5h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $55 6h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $55 11h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $55 13h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $55 14h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $55 16h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $55 17h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $55 19h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $55 20h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $55 22h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $55 24h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $55 26h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 27h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 29h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $56 30h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $56 32h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $56 36h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 38h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 40h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $56 41h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $56 43h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $56 44h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 2d
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 2d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $56 2d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $56 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $56 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $56 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1481 history records