Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T05:36:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

39
0x39e5…f2e6
crypto · 22 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$28 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$262 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$262
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses12 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage6d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%
Chart Positions 0 History 22 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$290
7 days−$262
14 days−$262
30 days−$262
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Up 74¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $18 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $204 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $204 +$86 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $202 +$27 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$9 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$9 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 14 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$8 +33%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$5 +23%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$18 -92%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $54 +$8 +14%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$20 +194%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $39 +$6 +16%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $20 +$2 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 80% −$223
other 17% −$31
politics 2% +$2
sports 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $18 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $104 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $204 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $290 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $204 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $229 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $202 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 80¢ $25 2h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 6h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 8h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 12h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 14h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 14h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $62 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 91¢ $44 28h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-30.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -22.7% -30.1% 55% 50% -30.8%
≤30d 22 -22.7% -30.1% 55% 50% -30.8%
≤90d 22 -22.7% -30.1% 55% 50% -30.8%
all 22 -22.7% -30.1% 55% 50% -30.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.1% 50% -30.8%
10% -36.8% 27% -37.5%
15% -42.9% 14% -43.5%
20% -48.5% 9% -49.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 42 history records