Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:27:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
39 0x39e7…0fc7 sports 38 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$528 (+21%) realized +$501 · open +$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate65%22W / 12L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$139now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$420
other 4% +$79
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)+28.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +42.3% +28.8% 65% 65% +8.4%
≤30d 34 +42.3% +28.8% 65% 65% +8.4%
≤90d 34 +42.3% +28.8% 65% 65% +8.4%
all 34 +42.3% +28.8% 65% 65% +8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +28.8% 65% +8.4%
10% +16.5% 62% -2.0%
15% +5.2% 59% -11.4%
20% -5.1% 53% -20.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +42% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +48% → late +37% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$69 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$139
Realized+$501
Unrealized+$27
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses22 / 12
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions4
Markets (closed)34 / 38
History coverage3d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Over 68¢ 84¢ $68 $83 +$15 (+23%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 5.5 Corners Over 58¢ 74¢ $32 $41 +$9 (+28%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 6.5 Corners Over 46¢ 53¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+15%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Over 49¢ 64¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $52 −$52 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $105 +$72 +68%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 21 $17 +$27 +157%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 21 $76 +$62 +81%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $102 −$102 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $77 −$77 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $100 +$225 +225%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $119 −$119 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 20 $294 +$225 +76%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 20 $98 +$79 +81%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $168 +$47 +28%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 20 $134 −$134 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $49 +$80 +162%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $2 +$6 +383%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $79 +$50 +63%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $178 +$87 +49%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $127 +$51 +40%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $37 −$37 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $97 −$97 -100%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $56 +$71 +126%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $7 +$16 +214%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $15 +$12 +75%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $16 +$25 +154%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 19 $22 +$21 +98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $24 +$32 +133%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $38 −$38 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 18 $36 +$5 +14%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $20 +$23 +112%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $14 +$27 +200%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $54 +$54 +99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners SELL Over 0¢ $0 26m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Over 0¢ $0 26m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 46¢ $10 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 58¢ $32 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $45 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 68¢ $90 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $177 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $50 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 37¢ $52 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $105 4h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 30¢ $100 19h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Over 38¢ $17 20h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 54¢ $76 20h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 31¢ $26 20h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $77 20h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 66¢ $102 20h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 53¢ $119 22h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 6.5 Corners SELL Over 100¢ $519 22h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 63¢ $94 23h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 52¢ $200 23h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 SELL Over 100¢ $178 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $215 23h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 54¢ $98 25h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 76¢ $168 25h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $130 26h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $7 26h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $129 26h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 20¢ $2 27h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $49 27h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $79 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $139.44 · official $139.44 (match) · 82 history records