Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:14:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x39ec…06d3 other 46 markets active 0h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,024 (+1%) realized +$1,124 · open −$100
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate64%25W / 14L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,741per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$16,710now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$957
7 days+$26
14 days+$513
30 days+$513
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% +$1,481
weather 4% +$207
politics 3% −$167
world 2% −$724
sports 1% −$8
crypto 1% −$96
finance 1% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -3.3% -12.5% 38% 12% -9.5%
≤30d 10 -2.6% -11.9% 40% 10% -8.7%
≤90d 39 -3.7% -12.8% 64% 8% -8.4%
all 39 -3.7% -12.8% 64% 8% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 8% -8.4%
10% -21.2% 5% -17.2%
15% -28.8% 3% -25.2%
20% -35.8% 3% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$961) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$118 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$16,710
Realized+$1,124
Unrealized−$100
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses25 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions7
Markets (closed)39 / 46
History coverage83d
Avg bet$1,741
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? No 75¢ 74¢ $7,468 $7,418 −$50 (-1%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? No 70¢ 69¢ $5,570 $5,529 −$41 (-1%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 49¢ 50¢ $2,450 $2,475 +$25 (+1%)
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $728 $676 −$52 (-7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 91¢ 94¢ $542 $563 +$21 (+4%)
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $52 $48 −$4 (-7%)
Will Australia finish second in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $19,536 −$119 -1%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $6,796 +$67 +1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,069 +$1,009 +94%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $747 −$747 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gr Jun 16 $162 −$1 -0%
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 16 $502 −$37 -7%
Will Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou Jun 16 $2,500 −$367 -15%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $12,966 +$221 +2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9,944 +$561 +6%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jun 08 $1,361 −$74 -5%
Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 May 17 $10 $0 +5%
Israeli forces enter Beirut by April 30, 2026? May 17 $38 +$2 +4%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $262 −$38 -14%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $60 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 40-59 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 16? Apr 21 $1,053 +$22 +2%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Apr 16 $1,860 +$229 +12%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? Apr 16 $24 +$1 +5%
Will none of the eaglets hatch before April 17? Apr 16 $34 +$1 +3%
Jilin Northeast Tigers vs. Sichuan Blue Whales Apr 07 $43 +$2 +4%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Apr 07 $490 −$18 -4%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 7? Apr 07 $518 −$14 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Apr 07 $348 −$61 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Apr 07 $50 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Apr 07 $303 +$8 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C or higher on April 3? Apr 07 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on April 3? Apr 07 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C or higher on April 3? Apr 07 $39 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on April 3? Apr 07 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on April 3? Apr 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on April 3? Apr 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on April 3? Apr 03 $34 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Apr 03 $252 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Apr 03 $67 −$34 -50%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 2? Apr 03 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 2? Apr 03 $53 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 2? Apr 03 $72 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 2? Apr 03 $708 +$180 +25%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 1? Apr 02 $961 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 75¢ $7,524 29m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 70¢ $227 32m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 70¢ $5,393 32m
Will Australia finish second in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gro BUY Yes 61¢ $0 47m
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $378 2h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $378 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 98¢ $62 14h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 98¢ $475 14h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 98¢ $49 14h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 98¢ $6 14h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 98¢ $100 14h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 98¢ $16 14h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 98¢ $1 14h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 98¢ $11 14h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 98¢ $130 14h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 98¢ $50 14h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 98¢ $18 14h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 98¢ $12 14h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 98¢ $4 14h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 98¢ $10 14h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 98¢ $27 14h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 98¢ $81 14h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 98¢ $5 14h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 98¢ $5 14h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 98¢ $5 14h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 98¢ $16 14h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 98¢ $7 14h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 98¢ $1 14h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 98¢ $17 14h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 98¢ $11,419 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16,710.47 · official $16,711.06 (match) · 500 history records