Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:18:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
39 0x39ed…df8d crypto 183 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$273 (-5%) realized −$227 · open −$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%78W / 98L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$174now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$315
7 days+$262
14 days+$108
30 days+$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% −$227
other 41% +$274
sports 7% −$84
culture 3% −$42
world 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -5.5% -14.5% 48% 46% +1.8%
≤30d 94 -17.7% -25.5% 44% 43% -8.5%
≤90d 176 -11.2% -19.7% 44% 43% -10.4%
all 176 -11.2% -19.7% 44% 43% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.7% 43% -10.4%
10% -27.4% 39% -18.9%
15% -34.4% 36% -26.8%
20% -40.8% 29% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$22 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$174
Realized−$227
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses78 / 98
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions4
Markets (closed)176 / 183
History coverage66d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 176 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 17¢ 12¢ $135 $93 −$42 (-31%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $35 $37 +$2 (+6%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 22¢ $40 $34 −$6 (-16%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 79 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $112 +$315 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 27 $16 −$15 -95%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $25 −$25 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $46 −$45 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $61 +$30 +50%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $15 +$9 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -95%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 25 $20 +$9 +44%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $76 −$75 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 25 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 25 $20 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 25 $20 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -96%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $41 −$40 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 25 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 25 $42 −$5 -12%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $56 +$52 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 25 $31 +$21 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 25 $16 +$19 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 25 $16 +$15 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 25 $22 +$19 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 25 $31 +$22 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 25 $41 −$30 -72%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $76 −$36 -47%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $91 +$29 +32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $111 +$22 +20%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $25 +$39 +152%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $35 +$20 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 24 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 24 $16 +$16 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 24 $15 +$6 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$13 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 24 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 24 $36 −$28 -77%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 +$46 +46%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $15 +$86 +558%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $100 +$17 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 8¢ $36 50m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $427 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 22¢ $82 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 5¢ $36 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $91 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 62¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 3d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 3d
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 AND Türkiye vs. United States: 1st BUY 27¢ $15 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $174.02 · official $174.02 (match) · 521 history records