Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:57:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x39ef…c8c0 crypto 19 markets active 5d ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$117 (-32%) realized −$117 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate53%10W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day50.7pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$114
other 3% −$10
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-30.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -22.7% -30.1% 53% 32% -40.0%
≤30d 19 -22.7% -30.1% 53% 32% -40.0%
≤90d 19 -22.7% -30.1% 53% 32% -40.0%
all 19 -22.7% -30.1% 53% 32% -40.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.1% 32% -40.0%
10% ← realistic here -36.7% 21% -45.8%
15% -42.9% 16% -51.0%
20% -48.5% 11% -55.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$17 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$117
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses10 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage1d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day50.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $76 −$75 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 13 $75 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $42 −$31 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $32 +$9 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $12 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $7 $0 +2%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $1 $0 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$5 +53%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $76 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $27 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 63 history records