Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:18:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x39f5…4d62 crypto 739 markets active 0h ago coverage 196d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,993 (-4%) realized −$1,993 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate89%658W / 81L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$121
14 days+$121
30 days+$121
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,724
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 +2.4% -7.4% 90% 29% -6.7%
≤30d 63 +2.4% -7.4% 90% 29% -6.7%
≤90d 63 +2.4% -7.4% 90% 29% -6.7%
all 739 +1.3% -8.4% 89% 29% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 29% -12.8%
10% -17.2% 8% -21.1%
15% -25.2% 2% -28.7%
20% -32.5% 1% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$56 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

196d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,993
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses658 / 81
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)739 / 739
History coverage196d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 739 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 12 $51 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $50 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 11 $45 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $47 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 11 $45 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 11 $40 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 11 $51 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $50 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $101 −$45 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 11 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 11 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 11 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $50 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 11 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 11 $52 +$48 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 11 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 11 $50 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 11 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 10 $90 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 10 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 10 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 10 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 10 $50 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 10 $101 +$17 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 10 $102 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 10 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 10 $51 +$17 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $50 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $50 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $50 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $50 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $50 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $50 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $50 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $51 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $50 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $50 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $50 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $50 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $45 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $47 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $45 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $40 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $50 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $51 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $50 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1839 history records