Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:39:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x39f6…c6ef sports 266 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 11d only
✗ bot/MM pace (287 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$304 (+5%) realized +$319 · open −$15
Gross ROI / mkt +67% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +29% what you keep after slip
Net edge+29%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%177W / 156L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day286.9pace
Fees−$218est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$235
7 days−$23
14 days−$619
30 days−$619
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$294
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (287 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+51.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 223 +75.8% +59.1% 48% 48% -18.4%
≤30d 333 +67.0% +51.1% 53% 53% -26.9%
≤90d 333 +67.0% +51.1% 53% 53% -26.9%
all 333 +67.0% +51.1% 53% 53% -26.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover286.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +51.1% 53% -26.9%
10% ← realistic here +36.7% 43% -33.9%
15% +23.5% 26% -40.3%
20% +11.3% 17% -46.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +67% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +42% → late +92% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
10.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$13 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$319
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses177 / 156
Est. fees paid−$218
Open positions2
Markets (closed)333 / 266
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$25
Trades / day286.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 333 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs Oxuji Esports $15 $0 −$15 (-99%)
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 182 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Birmingham: Mika Stojsavljevic vs Elvina Kalieva Jun 18 $0 +$8 +2338%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Birmingham: Mika Stojsavljevic vs Emerson Jones Jun 18 $9 −$8 -92%
Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs UNO MILLE (BO5) - Odyssey Cup Brazil Jun 18 $3 +$9 +316%
Birmingham: Clement Chidekh vs Filippo Romano Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Prostejov: Taro Daniel vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Birmingham: Sho Shimabukuro vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Heilbronn: Lorenzo Giustino vs Marko Topo Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Prostejov: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Martin Krumich Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: Uwinks vs New Meta (BO3) - LJL Regular Season Jun 18 $5 −$15 -300%
Roland Garros WTA: Coco Gauff vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Foggia: Tatiana Pieri vs Sofia Costoulas Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Birmingham: Taylah Preston vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: ENCE vs Entropy (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: S Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Birmingham: Yunchaokete Bu vs Lloyd Harris Jun 18 $0 −$4 -3206%
Tyler: Henry Searle vs Karl Poling Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $12 end of February? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on February 12? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 12? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Birmingham: Celine Naef vs Mary Stoiana Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on February 12? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Roland Garros Juniors, Boys: Ferdinand Livet Novkirichka vs Nicolas Ba Jun 18 $2 +$2 +95%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Oleksandra Oliynykova Jun 18 $14 −$13 -94%
Vicenza: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Lukas Neumayer Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Jun 18 $0 +$5 +6537%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in February? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in February? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Centurion 2: Khololwam Montsi vs Calvin Hemery Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Perugia: Pierluigi Basile vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $200 end of February? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Galorys (BO3) - Circuit X Base Recife Playoff Jun 18 $1 +$5 +363%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs RUSTEC (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group S Jun 18 $0 +$8 +8158%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Francisco Comesana Jun 18 $24 −$24 -100%
Centurion 2: Akira Santillan vs Alexander Donski Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 February 2-8? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
LoL: Barça eSports vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix (BO3) - LES Playoffs Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $450 end of February? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 18 $0 +$11 +6100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $156 end of February? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in February? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Birmingham: Ugo Blanchet vs Felix Gill Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Prostejov: Vitaliy Sachko vs Vit Kopriva Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 18 $2 +$1 +92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Oxuji Esports $5 14m
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Oxuji Esports $5 14m
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Oxuji Esports $5 14m
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League SELL Oxuji Esports 30¢ $4 15m
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League SELL Oxuji Esports 30¢ $1 15m
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League SELL Oxuji Esports 30¢ $0 16m
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League SELL Oxuji Esports 30¢ $5 16m
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League SELL Oxuji Esports 30¢ $3 16m
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Oxuji Esports 10¢ $1 20m
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Oxuji Esports 12¢ $1 21m
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Oxuji Esports 13¢ $1 21m
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Oxuji Esports 15¢ $1 21m
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Oxuji Esports 31¢ $2 24m
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League SELL Infinite 50¢ $2 25m
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League SELL Infinite 50¢ $2 25m
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League SELL Infinite 50¢ $2 25m
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League SELL Infinite 50¢ $2 25m
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League SELL Infinite 50¢ $2 25m
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League SELL Infinite 50¢ $2 25m
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League SELL Infinite 50¢ $2 25m
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 32¢ $2 26m
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 36¢ $4 26m
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 39¢ $3 26m
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 44¢ $3 26m
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Benjamin Bonzi SELL Christopher OConnell 69¢ $16 1h
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Benjamin Bonzi SELL Christopher OConnell 69¢ $10 1h
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Christopher OConnell 50¢ $5 1h
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Christopher OConnell 51¢ $5 1h
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Christopher OConnell 53¢ $5 1h
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Christopher OConnell 54¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.33 · official $6.13 (match) · 3500 history records