Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:18:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x39f8…bada crypto 443 markets active 0h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$14,940 (-14%) realized −$14,940 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate48%222W / 240L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$235per market
Trades / day21.8pace
Fees−$844est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$222
7 days−$36
14 days−$301
30 days−$3,470
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% −$1,606
other 29% −$1,545
crypto 12% +$519
world 12% −$12,110
weather 1% −$309
tech 1% −$71
finance 0% −$12
culture 0% −$24
politics 0% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -21.8% -29.2% 33% 28% -11.4%
≤30d 163 -13.8% -22.0% 42% 36% -20.2%
≤90d 302 -8.8% -17.5% 49% 37% -12.8%
all 462 -11.3% -19.8% 48% 38% -23.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.8% 38% -23.8%
10% ← realistic here -27.4% 32% -31.1%
15% -34.5% 27% -37.8%
20% -40.9% 23% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -18% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$129 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14,940
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses222 / 240
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$844
Open positions0
Markets (closed)462 / 443
History coverage126d
Avg bet$235
Trades / day21.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 462 Trades
no open positions (163 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova Jun 21 $120 +$15 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 21 $63 −$1 -1%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 20 $179 +$150 +84%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 20 $51 +$83 +162%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 AND Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/ Jun 19 $141 +$52 +37%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $79 +$21 +26%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 AND Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $101 +$58 +58%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $101 +$29 +29%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $100 +$12 +12%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $100 +$2 +2%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $100 +$5 +5%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +29%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $30 +$13 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $57 −$24 -42%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $73 −$73 -100%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $109 +$44 +40%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $71 −$70 -98%
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 14 $180 −$179 -99%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $62 −$62 -100%
Ilkley: Celine Naef vs Akasha Urhobo Jun 12 $234 −$189 -81%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bratislava: Zdenek Kolar vs Federico Cina Jun 12 $710 −$493 -69%
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Jun 12 $203 +$270 +133%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $264 −$8 -3%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $83 +$12 +14%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $88 +$12 +13%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $100 +$8 +8%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $283 +$157 +56%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 12 $49 −$49 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova SELL Solana Sierra 45¢ $135 1m
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova BUY Solana Sierra 40¢ $3 3m
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova BUY Solana Sierra 40¢ $73 3m
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova BUY Solana Sierra 40¢ $44 4m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL Yes 62¢ $63 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 62¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 61¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 61¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 62¢ $31 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Minnesota Lynx 100¢ $329 29h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Minnesota Lynx 52¢ $16 31h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Minnesota Lynx 53¢ $49 31h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Minnesota Lynx 53¢ $4 31h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Minnesota Lynx 55¢ $35 31h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Minnesota Lynx 55¢ $47 31h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Minnesota Lynx 55¢ $28 31h
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty SELL Washington Mystics 99¢ $9 31h
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty SELL Washington Mystics 95¢ $125 31h
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty BUY Washington Mystics 36¢ $51 32h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 AND Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY 71¢ $202 34h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $100 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 AND Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/ BUY 73¢ $141 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 79¢ $1 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 79¢ $78 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 AND Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY 63¢ $101 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $130 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $101 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $112 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $100 3d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Milwaukee Brewers 92¢ $102 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2858 history records