Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:12:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

39 0x39f8…b8e4 other 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$107 (+18%) realized +$106 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip

Net edge-31%after slip

Net WR45%break-even

Win rate55%6W / 5L

Drawdown14%max

Avg bet$28per market

Trades / day5.8pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit19%portable

Net worth$366now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +45%

net ROI/market (all)-28.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	11	-20.6%	-28.2%	55%	45%	+31.7%
≤30d	11	-20.6%	-28.2%	55%	45%	+31.7%
≤90d	11	-20.6%	-28.2%	55%	45%	+31.7%
all	11	-20.6%	-28.2%	55%	45%	+31.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.8 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-28.2%	45%	+31.7%
10%	-35.0%	36%	+19.1%
15%	-41.3%	36%	+7.6%
20%	-47.1%	36%	-3.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 68% · top 2 89% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +46% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

17% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -21% · $-wt +46% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$21 vs −$5 · ×4.41 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×5.29 per $1 lost it wins $5.29

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$366

Realized+$106

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)55%

Wins / losses6 / 5

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions10

Markets (closed)11 / 21

History coverage4d

Avg bet$28

Trades / day5.8

Drawdown14%

Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 10 History 11 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	64¢	62¢	$60	$59	−$1 (-2%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	41¢	42¢	$50	$52	+$2 (+4%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	62¢	64¢	$50	$51	+$1 (+2%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	68¢	68¢	$50	$50	+$0 (+1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	49¢	48¢	$50	$49	−$1 (-1%)
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5	Over	46¢	46¢	$35	$35	−$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	91¢	90¢	$30	$30	−$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	49¢	48¢	$20	$20	−$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	60¢	62¢	$10	$10	+$0 (+2%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Yes	23¢	22¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$51	+$26	+52%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$10	+$6	+55%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$3	$0	+8%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$10	+$1	+12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$10	+$7	+73%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$118	+$86	+73%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia?	Jun 17	$2	−$2	-98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia?	Jun 17	$2	−$2	-97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	49¢	$20	1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	49¢	$51	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$50	1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	23¢	$10	1h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5	BUY Over	46¢	$36	7h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	64¢	$61	7h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	100¢	$77	7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	92¢	$3	19h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	91¢	$30	25h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	41¢	$51	3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	62¢	$51	3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	65¢	$51	3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	60¢	$10	3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$10	3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	89¢	$5	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	64¢	$10	3d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$5	3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	57¢	$10	3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$204	3d
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia?	BUY Yes	15¢	$2	3d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia?	BUY Yes	11¢	$2	3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	57¢	$51	4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$10	4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	57¢	$67	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $365.94 · official $365.94 (match) · 28 history records