Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:28:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

39
0x39fb…7c05
crypto · 16 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$34 -42%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$34 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses5 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage66d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 16 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 12? No 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 -3%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 07 $11 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 07 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 07 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 07 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Apr 07 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Apr 07 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Apr 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Apr 07 $1 +$1 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Apr 07 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Apr 07 $16 +$14 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Apr 07 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Apr 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Apr 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 93% −$33
weather 7% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-44.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -51.4% -56.0% 0% 0% -26.4%
≤30d 2 -51.4% -56.0% 0% 0% -26.4%
≤90d 16 -38.2% -44.1% 31% 25% -48.8%
all 16 -38.2% -44.1% 31% 25% -48.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.1% 25% -48.8%
10% -49.5% 25% -53.7%
15% -54.3% 25% -58.2%
20% -58.8% 25% -62.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 25 history records