Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:58:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
39 0x39fb…4b19 other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$14 (-11%) realized +$8 · open −$22
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%2W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$5
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% +$1
sports 15% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-37.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -33.5% -39.9% 20% 20% -1.3%
≤30d 11 -31.2% -37.8% 18% 18% -2.0%
≤90d 11 -31.2% -37.8% 18% 18% -2.0%
all 11 -31.2% -37.8% 18% 18% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.8% 18% -2.0%
10% -43.7% 18% -11.3%
15% -49.2% 18% -19.9%
20% -54.2% 9% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$2 · ×5.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized+$8
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses2 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)11 / 14
History coverage11d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $44 $43 −$0 (-1%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 20¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-15%)
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ $23 $3 −$20 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $11 −$1 -8%
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $10 +$23 +224%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $7 −$6 -87%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $6 −$1 -13%
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2 $0 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $44 1h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 27¢ $11 1h
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $33 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal $1 47h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 29¢ $7 2d
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 34¢ $7 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 3d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 3d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $3 5d
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 6d
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 6d
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $24 7d
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 7d
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 9d
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 9d
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 10d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $11 10d
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 10d
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $11 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.75 · official $55.75 (match) · 22 history records