Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:56:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
39 0x39fd…cf2d other 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$326 (+25%) realized +$325 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate69%37W / 17L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$91
7 days+$189
14 days+$287
30 days+$274
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% +$247
crypto 23% −$8
sports 9% +$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)+9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +37.7% +24.6% 60% 60% +21.9%
≤30d 41 +25.8% +13.8% 63% 63% +14.9%
≤90d 54 +21.2% +9.7% 69% 61% +13.9%
all 54 +21.2% +9.7% 69% 61% +13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.7% 61% +13.9%
10% -0.8% 54% +3.0%
15% -10.4% 50% -6.9%
20% -19.2% 43% -16.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +39% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$15 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.16 per $1 lost it wins $2.16
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$126
Realized+$325
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses37 / 17
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)54 / 59
History coverage35d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $40 $34 −$6 (-15%)
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 52¢ $20 $28 +$8 (+41%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $15 +$45 +291%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $20 +$32 +158%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 +$14 +70%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 +$7 +65%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 26 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 26 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 26 $20 −$1 -5%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $20 −$1 -6%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $56 −$55 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $71 +$65 +92%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $30 +$11 +38%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $36 +$53 +148%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $46 −$45 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$64 +127%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $40 +$23 +56%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $40 +$21 +52%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$21 +70%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$14 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$13 +62%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 +$16 +105%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +55%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $12 +$5 +40%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $36 +$33 +93%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev May 31 $15 −$15 -99%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks May 31 $15 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 31 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 31 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET May 30 $26 +$15 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 30 $31 −$9 -30%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $51 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 30 $31 +$13 +43%
Roland Garros ATP: Stan Wawrinka vs Jesper de Jong May 25 $25 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET May 24 $25 +$2 +8%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $20 +$10 +47%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $20 +$18 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 24 $5 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 24 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 24 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 24 $10 +$5 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 46¢ $15 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 60¢ $25 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 25h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 43h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 43h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 43h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 54¢ $19 43h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 43h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 43h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 51¢ $19 43h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 39¢ $19 43h
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 BUY Yes 37¢ $20 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $41 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $15 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $15 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $15 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $15 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $30 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $30 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $15 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $126.32 · official $126.32 (match) · 135 history records