Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:37:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3A
0x3a00…c1b0
crypto · 368 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$25 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$47 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$143
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses224 / 131
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions13
Markets (closed)355 / 368
History coverage119d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 13 History 355 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$93
7 days−$69
14 days−$41
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $114 $121 +$7 (+6%)
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 42¢ 46¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 86¢ 84¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 36¢ 22¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-38%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Yes 39¢ 16¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-59%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? Up 48¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 36¢ 27¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 73¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Up 78¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $28 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$1 -16%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $30 −$3 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 13 $31 −$1 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $40 −$38 -96%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $24 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 13 $14 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 82% −$79
other 10% +$43
world 3% $0
tech 3% −$6
politics 1% −$6
finance 1% +$2
culture 0% +$1
sports 0% +$1
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 -10.3% -18.8% 58% 39% -19.7%
≤30d 108 -1.8% -11.2% 67% 46% -7.8%
≤90d 158 -27.7% -34.6% 48% 34% -16.1%
all 355 -6.5% -15.4% 63% 41% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 41% -11.6%
10% -23.5% 24% -20.0%
15% -30.9% 15% -27.7%
20% -37.6% 9% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $142.99 · official $143.00 (match) · 1326 history records