Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:58:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3a02…576d crypto 431 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$330 (-6%) realized −$330 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate69%299W / 132L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day46.5pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days−$282
14 days−$252
30 days−$438
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% +$26
sports 22% −$311
other 15% −$153
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 297 -4.5% -13.6% 87% 4% -15.0%
≤30d 431 -9.9% -18.5% 69% 10% -17.1%
≤90d 431 -9.9% -18.5% 69% 10% -17.1%
all 431 -9.9% -18.5% 69% 10% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.5% 10% -17.1%
10% ← realistic here -26.3% 8% -25.0%
15% -33.4% 6% -32.3%
20% -39.9% 4% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$330
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses299 / 132
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)431 / 431
History coverage27d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day46.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 431 Trades
no open positions (73 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $45 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $45 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $119 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $44 +$1 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $119 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $59 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $74 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 18m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 29m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 49m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 54m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 54m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $20 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $20 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1618 history records