Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:55:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3A 0x3a08…d87b crypto 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$123 (+0%) realized +$123 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate33%15W / 31L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,481per market
Trades / day42.9pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$132now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$125
7 days−$190
14 days+$217
30 days+$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$129
sports 1% −$125
other 0% +$442
world 0% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -16.1% -24.1% 43% 43% -28.9%
≤30d 39 +6.0% -4.1% 31% 23% -9.5%
≤90d 46 +5.1% -4.9% 33% 20% -9.5%
all 46 +5.1% -4.9% 33% 20% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.9% 20% -9.5%
10% -14.0% 20% -18.1%
15% ← realistic here -22.3% 20% -26.0%
20% -29.9% 20% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,502) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
15.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$29 · ×2.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$132
Realized+$123
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses15 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage34d
Avg bet$2,481
Trades / day42.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Paraguay to score first vs. Australia? No 55¢ 55¢ $131 $131 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $135 +$125 +93%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $134 −$132 -99%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $122 +$118 +97%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $122 −$120 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $129 −$127 -99%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $155 −$153 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $102 +$98 +97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $102 +$98 +97%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $91 +$92 +101%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$95 +93%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $202 +$115 +57%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$107 +105%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 10? Jun 09 $11,442 −$9 -0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 8? Jun 08 $10,920 −$1 -0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 8? Jun 07 $13,918 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 7? Jun 07 $979 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 6? Jun 06 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 06 $259 −$250 -97%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 6? Jun 06 $22,207 −$2 -0%
Will XRP reach $1.40 on June 4? Jun 05 $2,298 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on June 5? Jun 04 $2,091 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $880 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 4? Jun 03 $2,500 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 4? Jun 03 $7,910 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 3? Jun 02 $6,271 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 1? Jun 01 $6,301 −$1 -0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 31? May 31 $5,110 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 30? May 31 $1,350 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 30? May 30 $3,001 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 30? May 30 $160 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 30? May 29 $5,047 −$3 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 29? May 29 $600 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 28? May 28 $4,605 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 28? May 28 $1,651 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 28? May 28 $150 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 28 $155 +$145 +93%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 27? May 28 $450 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on May 27? May 27 $600 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on May 26? May 26 $2,502 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 26? May 26 $150 $0 -0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 25? May 26 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on May 25? May 26 $930 $0 -0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on May 25? May 25 $135 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 24? May 25 $150 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 23? May 24 $111 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Paraguay to score first vs. Australia? BUY No 55¢ $133 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $135 44h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $134 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $122 3d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $122 4d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $129 5d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $155 6d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $102 7d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $102 8d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $91 9d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 10d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 11d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $202 12d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 13d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $360 16d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $360 16d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $360 16d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $360 16d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $360 16d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $360 16d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $360 16d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $360 16d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $360 16d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $360 16d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $360 16d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $360 16d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $360 16d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $360 16d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $360 16d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $360 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $131.50 · official $131.50 (match) · 1455 history records