Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:26:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3a09…e2b8 crypto 400 markets active 1h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,045 (-1%) realized −$3,294 · open +$249
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate69%267W / 120L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$615per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Fees−$632est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$6,169now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$767
7 days−$1,750
14 days+$1,551
30 days+$1,556
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 34% −$475
sports 30% −$709
other 25% +$1,034
world 8% −$1,576
finance 2% −$923
politics 0% −$560
weather 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -9.4% -18.0% 67% 50% -12.8%
≤30d 90 -0.7% -10.2% 74% 49% -8.0%
≤90d 187 -9.5% -18.1% 64% 43% -11.2%
all 387 -4.8% -13.9% 69% 42% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.9% 42% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -22.1% 26% -19.4%
15% -29.6% 18% -27.2%
20% -36.5% 11% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$840) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$122 vs −$301 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$6,169
Realized−$3,294
Unrealized+$249
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses267 / 120
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$632
Open positions11
Markets (closed)387 / 400
History coverage164d
Avg bet$615
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 387 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $2,400 $3,250 +$850 (+35%)
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Australia 87¢ 96¢ $870 $962 +$92 (+11%)
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 1.5 Over 69¢ 100¢ $345 $500 +$155 (+45%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $800 $350 −$450 (-56%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $330 $275 −$55 (-17%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $260 $250 −$10 (-4%)
Paraguay vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 Over 34¢ 20¢ $340 $205 −$135 (-40%)
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 6.5 Over 13¢ 16¢ $130 $156 +$26 (+20%)
Paraguay vs. Australia: Australia O/U 1.5 Over 6¢ 4¢ $150 $92 −$57 (-38%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Yes 29¢ 20¢ $96 $68 −$28 (-29%)
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 1 Australia? Yes 16¢ 5¢ $200 $62 −$138 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $108 +$10 +10%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $90 −$90 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $785 −$112 -14%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $174 +$110 +63%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 25 $696 +$221 +32%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $285 +$108 +38%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 7.5 Jun 25 $78 −$76 -97%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $0 $0 -97%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 25 $2,357 +$343 +14%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-3.5) Jun 25 $1,551 +$449 +29%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $805 +$195 +24%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $815 −$810 -99%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,883 +$117 +6%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $2,009 +$291 +14%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $330 +$11 +3%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 24 $2,561 +$163 +6%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $110 +$134 +122%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $429 +$51 +12%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 23 $687 +$88 +13%
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $164 −$160 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $216 +$35 +16%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $496 +$193 +39%
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $370 +$130 +35%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $834 +$166 +20%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $1,545 +$555 +36%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $395 +$105 +27%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $480 −$475 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 22 $1,747 +$253 +14%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $268 +$32 +12%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 22 $2,960 +$188 +6%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2,841 +$306 +11%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2,701 +$74 +3%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $53 +$12 +24%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $189 +$11 +6%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $652 +$348 +53%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $1,529 −$1,520 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3,424 +$496 +14%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,249 +$91 +7%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $216 +$384 +178%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $180 −$180 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $1,649 +$228 +14%
Alexander Zverev vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $93 +$107 +114%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $1,648 −$1,637 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 20 $101 −$1 -1%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,595 +$105 +4%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $763 +$152 +20%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $1,533 −$1,518 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $774 −$760 -98%
ITF Milano: Georgii Kravchenko vs Giuseppe La Vela Jun 19 $150 −$150 -100%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson Jun 19 $141 −$138 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $348 38m
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 13¢ $133 42m
Paraguay vs. Australia: Australia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 6¢ $119 49m
Paraguay vs. Australia: Australia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 6¢ $31 49m
Paraguay vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 34¢ $347 50m
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 16¢ $205 1h
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Australia 87¢ $873 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 29¢ $98 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 52¢ $118 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 28¢ $274 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 27¢ $276 2h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $90 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 46¢ $108 2h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 68¢ $673 3h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 29¢ $284 3h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Netherlands 92¢ $918 3h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 SELL Over 79¢ $393 3h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 17¢ $174 4h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $785 4h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $285 4h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 69¢ $696 4h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 4¢ $78 4h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 1¢ $0 4h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 89¢ $891 7h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 89¢ $520 7h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 89¢ $16 7h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 89¢ $68 7h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 89¢ $18 7h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 77¢ $1,551 7h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 84¢ $844 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,169.36 · official $6,369.36 · 2241 history records