Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:36:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3a0a…83eb other 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$347 (-11%) realized −$331 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate46%19W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$131now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$52
7 days+$2
14 days−$319
30 days−$319
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$280
sports 22% −$10
crypto 1% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -5.6% -14.6% 50% 47% -9.4%
≤30d 41 -12.6% -20.9% 46% 41% -18.9%
≤90d 41 -12.6% -20.9% 46% 41% -18.9%
all 41 -12.6% -20.9% 46% 41% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 41% -18.9%
10% -28.5% 32% -26.7%
15% -35.4% 29% -33.8%
20% -41.7% 22% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$41 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$131
Realized−$331
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses19 / 22
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)41 / 43
History coverage12d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 35¢ 30¢ $97 $82 −$15 (-16%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $30 +$32 +105%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $51 +$37 +73%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $81 −$31 -38%
Will Germany be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 23 $72 −$29 -40%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $70 +$14 +20%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $30 −$8 -27%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $241 −$21 -9%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $71 −$55 -78%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $131 +$26 +20%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 23 $71 −$1 -1%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $100 +$10 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $141 +$45 +32%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $40 +$25 +62%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $30 +$14 +45%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $51 −$30 -58%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $71 +$42 +60%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $71 −$39 -55%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $61 +$39 +65%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $71 −$50 -71%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $15 −$10 -64%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $20 +$14 +70%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $106 +$40 +38%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $91 +$40 +44%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $71 −$2 -4%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $90 +$11 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $71 +$46 +65%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $60 +$12 +20%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $81 −$8 -10%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $173 −$173 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $77 −$3 -4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $166 +$10 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $106 +$60 +57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $77 −$76 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $61 +$64 +105%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $45 −$45 -98%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $59 −$58 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $51 6h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $30 6h
Will Germany be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $43 8h
Will Germany be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $72 8h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 57¢ $49 8h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $51 8h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 8h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 34¢ $22 10h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 45¢ $30 10h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 94¢ $190 23h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 15¢ $16 23h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 64¢ $71 24h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 23¢ $17 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $70 26h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 26h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 80¢ $101 26h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 50¢ $51 26h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 68¢ $32 27h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 64¢ $30 27h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 76¢ $69 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 89¢ $70 33h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 45h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 68¢ $30 2d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 49¢ $20 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 27¢ $21 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 61¢ $40 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $71 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 71¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $131.27 · official $131.28 (match) · 85 history records