Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:14:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3A 0x3a0b…d29d crypto 958 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 7d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (348 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,470 (-18%) realized −$1,474 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate41%533W / 768L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day348.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$205
sports 7% −$120
other 1% $0
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (348 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-38.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1097 -36.6% -42.6% 39% 23% -45.8%
≤30d 1301 -31.9% -38.4% 41% 21% -41.9%
≤90d 1301 -31.9% -38.4% 41% 21% -41.9%
all 1301 -31.9% -38.4% 41% 21% -41.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover348.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -38.4% 21% -41.9%
10% ← realistic here -44.3% 13% -47.4%
15% -49.7% 4% -52.5%
20% -54.6% 1% -57.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -56% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$86
Realized−$1,474
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses533 / 768
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions7
Markets (closed)1301 / 958
History coverage8d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day348.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 1301 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half No 83¢ 100¢ $30 $37 +$6 (+20%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? No 35¢ 72¢ $10 $21 +$11 (+104%)
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 15¢ 100¢ $2 $12 +$10 (+566%)
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 3 Egypt? No 100¢ 96¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Under 43¢ 64¢ $4 $7 +$2 (+48%)
Belgium to score first vs. Egypt? Yes 67¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Egypt to score first vs. Belgium? No 73¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 493 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1PM ET Jun 15 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$4 -410%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$4 -359%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3PM ET Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $59 −$59 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium to score first vs. Egypt? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 1h
Egypt to score first vs. Belgium? BUY No 73¢ $4 1h
Egypt to score first vs. Belgium? BUY No 73¢ $4 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $10 1h
Egypt to score first vs. Belgium? BUY No 73¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 3 Egypt? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Egypt to score first vs. Belgium? BUY No 73¢ $4 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 83¢ $10 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 83¢ $10 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 83¢ $10 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Under 43¢ $2 2h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Under 43¢ $2 2h
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3h
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3h
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 3h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 74¢ $4 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Under 69¢ $0 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 8¢ $1 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Under 69¢ $10 3h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 50¢ $10 3h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $9 3h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 3h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 31¢ $0 3h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 31¢ $0 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Under 66¢ $10 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? BUY No 36¢ $2 3h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 8¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.77 · official $85.77 (match) · 3500 history records