Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:16:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
3A 0x3a0c…3e02 other 112 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$40 (-0%) realized −$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate13%14W / 96L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$220per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$173now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$8
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$49
politics 24% −$7
economics 9% −$2
sports 5% +$15
tech 3% −$1
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% +$1
world 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -20.1% -27.7% 0% 0% -10.8%
≤30d 17 -6.0% -14.9% 12% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 110 -1.2% -10.6% 13% 9% -9.7%
all 110 -1.2% -10.6% 13% 9% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 9% -9.7%
10% -19.2% 9% -18.3%
15% -27.0% 7% -26.2%
20% -34.1% 7% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×4.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$173
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses14 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)110 / 112
History coverage92d
Avg bet$220
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $87 $88 +$0 (+0%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $86 $86 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $35 $0 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $8 −$7 -99%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $51 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $233 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 13 $258 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $28 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $486 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $223 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $28 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $69 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 02 $80 $0 +0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 31 $50 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 30 $48 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? May 30 $71 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 24 $27 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $51 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 22 $263 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $213 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi May 17 $229 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $651 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $218 $0 -0%
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 13 $214 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $459 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $427 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $226 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $228 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 08 $461 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $217 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $220 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 05 $455 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 04 $229 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $231 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $225 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $217 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $420 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? May 01 $13 $0 +1%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $680 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $408 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 29 $223 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 28 $467 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $587 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April? Apr 24 $216 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 19 $239 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $232 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $229 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 18 $467 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $218 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $466 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $226 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $622 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $86 1h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $35 12h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $35 13h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 53¢ $8 17h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $50 38h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $51 41h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $30 2d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $30 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $87 5d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $28 5d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $28 5d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $28 7d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $28 7d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $30 8d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $30 8d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $38 12d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $38 13d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 14d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 14d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 18d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 18d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $48 19d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $48 19d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $41 19d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $41 20d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $30 20d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 20d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $69 23d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $27 25d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $173.38 · official $173.38 (match) · 316 history records