Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:46:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3a11…ca0e crypto 306 markets active 19h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (74 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$70 (-15%) realized −$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%144W / 161L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day74.3pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$70
other 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (74 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-29.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 305 -22.2% -29.6% 47% 45% -23.8%
≤30d 305 -22.2% -29.6% 47% 45% -23.8%
≤90d 305 -22.2% -29.6% 47% 45% -23.8%
all 305 -22.2% -29.6% 47% 45% -23.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover74.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.6% 45% -23.8%
10% ← realistic here -36.4% 42% -31.1%
15% -42.5% 41% -37.7%
20% -48.2% 14% -43.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.6 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses144 / 161
Open positions0
Markets (closed)305 / 306
History coverage6d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day74.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 305 Trades
no open positions (159 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $0 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $0 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $0 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $0 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $0 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $0 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $0 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $0 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $0 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $0 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $0 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $0 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $0 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $0 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $0 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $0 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $0 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $0 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $0 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $0 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $0 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $0 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $0 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $0 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $0 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $0 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $0 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $0 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $0 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.20 · official $0.00 · 859 history records