Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T11:53:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3A
0x3a15…cc8b
weather · 157 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$56 -19%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$56 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$12
Realized−$56
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses89 / 58
Open positions10
Markets (closed)147 / 157
History coverage63d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 10 History 147 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days+$2
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? No 73¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? No 69¢ 70¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? No 75¢ 73¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? No 70¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 15? No 64¢ 57¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 1? No 83¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 1? No 84¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? No 72¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 7? No 61¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+64%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 5? No 66¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+52%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? No 75¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+33%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 1? No 76¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+32%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 1? No 76¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+32%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on June 9? No 77¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 3? No 84¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 30? No 65¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+54%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? No 76¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+31%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on June 1? No 77¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? No 74¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+35%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 1? No 82¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 3? No 83¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 1? No 84¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 1? No 79¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+27%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 1? No 82¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 3? No 77¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +34%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Jun Jun 10 $1 $0 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +40%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Jun Jun 09 $1 $0 +35%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun Jun 09 $1 $0 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C or below on June 9? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 8? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 $0 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 $0 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 6? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 3? Jun 03 $1 $0 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 3? Jun 03 $1 $0 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 3? Jun 03 $1 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 03 $1 $0 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 3? Jun 03 $1 $0 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 3? Jun 03 $1 $0 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 3? Jun 03 $1 $0 +19%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 03 $1 $0 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 1? Jun 01 $1 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 1? Jun 01 $1 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 01 $1 $0 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1 $0 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1 $0 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 3? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 1? Jun 01 $1 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1 $0 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 01 $1 $0 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 01 $1 $0 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1 $0 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 85°F or below on June 3? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 01 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1 $0 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 1? May 31 $1 $0 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 76% −$9
crypto 24% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 69¢ $1 30h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 70¢ $1 30h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 75¢ $1 30h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 15? BUY No 64¢ $1 30h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 73¢ $1 31h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 73¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 72¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 69¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $0 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +35.5% +22.6% 67% 67% -14.4%
≤30d 68 +25.3% +13.4% 72% 72% -17.5%
≤90d 147 +2.7% -7.1% 61% 59% -28.9%
all 147 +2.7% -7.1% 61% 59% -28.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 59% -28.9%
10% -16.0% 42% -35.7%
15% -24.1% 31% -41.9%
20% -31.6% 22% -47.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.92 · official $5.43 · 583 history records