Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:20:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3a1c…8685 sports 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 637d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$138 (-3%) realized −$142 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate25%12W / 36L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$159
culture 16% −$1
other 2% +$13
politics 1% +$12
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 48 -14.2% -22.4% 25% 15% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.4% 15% -12.2%
10% -29.8% 15% -20.6%
15% -36.6% 15% -28.3%
20% -42.8% 15% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$16 · ×1.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

637d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$142
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses12 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage637d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? No 45¢ 48¢ $51 $55 +$4 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tennessee vs. Illinois Jan 08 $69 +$84 +122%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 30 $540 −$1 -0%
Magic vs. Raptors Dec 30 $85 +$88 +104%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 29 $665 $0 -0%
Bulls vs. Hornets Dec 12 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 12 $735 −$1 -0%
Hurricanes vs. Capitals Dec 11 $93 −$93 -100%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 11 $860 −$1 -0%
Falcons vs. Buccaneers Dec 10 $98 −$98 -100%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 10 $790 −$1 -0%
Lightning vs. Canadiens Dec 10 $80 +$80 +100%
Trail Blazers vs. Jazz Oct 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Padres vs. Marlins Jul 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Orioles vs. Guardians Jul 22 $4 +$3 +79%
MLB All-Star Game Jul 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Lucknow Super Giants vs. Sunrisers Hyderabad May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Celtics vs. Knicks May 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? May 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? May 08 $5 $0 -1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? May 07 $5 $0 -0%
Will Marcel Ciolacu win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? May 06 $5 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 05 $5 $0 -1%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Apr 30 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 27 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 17 $2 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $5 $0 -0%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Apr 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $6 $0 -2%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Apr 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 President’s Trophy? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 again by March 31? Mar 20 $3 $0 +4%
Flyers vs. Red Wings Dec 19 $102 −$102 -100%
Rangers vs. Predators Dec 18 $101 −$101 -100%
Faithless elector in US election? Dec 18 $24 +$15 +65%
Democrats win popular vote by 2-3%? Dec 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bulls vs. Raptors Dec 17 $106 +$98 +92%
Will there be 160,000,000-165,000,000 votes cast in the U.S. President Dec 13 $1 $0 +0%
Buccaneers vs. Falcons Oct 07 $24 −$24 -100%
Who will speak more at VP Debate? Oct 03 $8 +$12 +156%
草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)? Oct 01 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 45¢ $52 1h
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $539 181d
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $540 182d
Tennessee vs. Illinois BUY Illinois 45¢ $69 182d
Magic vs. Raptors BUY Raptors 49¢ $85 182d
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $665 182d
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $665 199d
Bulls vs. Hornets BUY Hornets 42¢ $71 199d
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? SELL No 100¢ $734 199d
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? BUY No 100¢ $735 200d
Hurricanes vs. Capitals BUY Capitals 50¢ $93 200d
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $859 200d
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $860 201d
Falcons vs. Buccaneers BUY Buccaneers 68¢ $98 201d
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $789 201d
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $790 202d
Lightning vs. Canadiens BUY Lightning 50¢ $80 202d
Trail Blazers vs. Jazz BUY Jazz 45¢ $5 243d
Padres vs. Marlins BUY Padres 51¢ $5 342d
Orioles vs. Guardians BUY Guardians 56¢ $4 343d
MLB All-Star Game BUY American League 50¢ $3 349d
Lucknow Super Giants vs. Sunrisers Hyderabad BUY Lucknow Super Giants 56¢ $5 406d
Celtics vs. Knicks BUY Celtics 44¢ $6 409d
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? SELL No 99¢ $5 412d
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? BUY No 99¢ $5 412d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $5 413d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $5 413d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? SELL No 98¢ $5 417d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? BUY No 99¢ $5 417d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? SELL No 100¢ $5 418d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.80 · official $55.94 · 99 history records