Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:53:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3a1d…dac4 politics 156 markets active 0h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,430 (-1%) realized −$1,430 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate16%25W / 130L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,275per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$185now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$7
14 days−$82
30 days−$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$13
politics 34% −$77
sports 21% −$1,352
world 3% −$25
culture 2% −$4
economics 0% −$1
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 43 -1.0% -10.4% 12% 7% -9.7%
≤90d 115 -5.3% -14.3% 10% 6% -10.8%
all 155 +2.7% -7.1% 16% 13% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 13% -10.2%
10% -16.0% 13% -18.8%
15% -24.1% 11% -26.6%
20% -31.5% 10% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,700) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$21 · ×2.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$185
Realized−$1,430
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses25 / 130
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)155 / 156
History coverage123d
Avg bet$1,275
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 155 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $184 $185 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $587 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $2,204 −$3 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $642 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $649 −$1 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 11 $595 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $649 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $719 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $3,237 −$5 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,314 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $530 −$1 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $753 −$1 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $608 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $2,844 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $732 −$1 -0%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 06 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $604 $0 -0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 04 $68 +$48 +70%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $552 −$1 -0%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $73 −$73 -100%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $618 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $394 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 02 $130 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.60 in May? Jun 02 $162 $0 +0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $669 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 01 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $1,741 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $4,770 −$5 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $219 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 26 $246 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 26 $248 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $461 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $219 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $2,550 −$3 -0%
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5) May 25 $58 +$56 +97%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $3,398 −$4 -0%
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins May 23 $45 −$45 -100%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 22 $39 +$37 +93%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $216 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 21 $242 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $241 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $369 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 20 $344 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 20 $345 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $2,335 −$2 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 10 $417 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $4,256 −$4 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $2,026 −$2 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 09 $413 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $418 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $403 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $586 12m
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $587 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $648 42h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $649 44h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $641 2d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $642 2d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $648 6d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $649 6d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $594 6d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $595 6d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $648 6d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $649 7d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $718 7d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $719 7d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $659 7d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $660 7d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $528 7d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $529 8d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $529 8d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $530 8d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $160 8d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $25 8d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $753 9d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $753 9d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $607 9d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $608 10d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $861 10d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $861 11d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $731 11d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $732 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $184.54 · official $184.54 (match) · 512 history records