Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T18:34:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3A
0x3a1e…5bb5
other · 453 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$71 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1 · open −$14
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$435
Realized−$1
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses200 / 224
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions29
Markets (closed)424 / 453
History coverage14d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day41.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%
Chart Positions 29 History 424 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$66
7 days−$287
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Germany 80¢ 96¢ $85 $101 +$16 (+19%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Curaçao? No 98¢ 100¢ $99 $101 +$2 (+2%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? No 93¢ 100¢ $55 $59 +$4 (+7%)
Germany leading at halftime? Yes 71¢ 100¢ $27 $38 +$11 (+41%)
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET Down 31¢ 32¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+2%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 57¢ 100¢ $13 $23 +$10 (+75%)
BNB Up or Down on June 15? Up 35¢ 35¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+0%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 92¢ 100¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+9%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET Down 45¢ 54¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+19%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays New York Yankees 62¢ 64¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $180B by June 30? No 67¢ 92¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+37%)
Will Hylo launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 79¢ 74¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-7%)
Hotstuff FDV above $50M one day after launch? No 75¢ 50¢ $8 $5 −$3 (-34%)
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Curaçao 43¢ 19¢ $11 $5 −$6 (-56%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Under 57¢ 10¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-83%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Under 50¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$34 (-99%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 87¢ 93¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+6%)
Puffpaw FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 85¢ 89¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? No 74¢ 84¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+14%)
Will Consensys IPO by December 31 2026? No 75¢ 80¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+7%)
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 73¢ 74¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027? No 72¢ 79¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+10%)
Will Hibachi launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 61¢ 62¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 65¢ 62¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Yes 75¢ 56¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
BNB Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$9 +271%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $52 −$3 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -95%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$4 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +31%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $24 −$24 -99%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 3AM ET Jun 14 $40 −$38 -96%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $2 +$6 +416%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $35 +$6 +16%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $60 +$45 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET Jun 14 $22 −$22 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $55 −$39 -70%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $29 −$29 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $28 −$28 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $18 −$17 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +134%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $47 +$59 +124%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $68 +$9 +13%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $42 +$6 +14%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $90 +$21 +24%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $71 −$70 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $80 +$24 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10PM ET Jun 14 $37 −$36 -96%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -99%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 9PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$4 +203%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $31 +$19 +62%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $34 −$33 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8PM ET Jun 14 $81 +$24 +30%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 8PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $3 +$5 +158%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Morocco? Jun 14 $67 +$4 +6%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $56 +$61 +109%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 7PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 39% −$69
other 36% +$22
crypto 24% +$34
tech 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 63¢ $6 9m
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 60¢ $4 9m
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 21m
BNB Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 35¢ $22 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $9 34m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $16 1h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 71¢ $27 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 57¢ $10 1h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY No 93¢ $55 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 50¢ $35 1h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 80¢ $85 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 67¢ $5 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 21¢ $5 1h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 43¢ $11 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 57¢ $13 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 47¢ $49 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 48¢ $52 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Up 40¢ $2 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 4h
BNB Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 26¢ $4 6h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $7 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $11 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 9h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 9h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 68¢ $24 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 209 -9.0% -17.7% 47% 43% -14.5%
≤30d 424 -9.2% -17.8% 47% 43% -9.5%
≤90d 424 -9.2% -17.8% 47% 43% -9.5%
all 424 -9.2% -17.8% 47% 43% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover41.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.8% 43% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -25.7% 38% -18.2%
15% -32.9% 32% -26.1%
20% -39.5% 26% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $435.12 · official $433.76 (match) · 767 history records