Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:29:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3A
0x3a1e…263d
crypto · 35 markets active 1h ago
4.0score
+$16 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$17 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$31
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses15 / 18
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)33 / 35
Avg bet$65
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 2 History 33 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$18
14 days+$33
30 days+$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Spirit 61¢ 60¢ $17 $16 −$0 (-2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on June 12? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+0%)
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alexei Popyrin vs Matteo Berrettini Matteo Berrettini 66¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $37 $0 -0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in a Gulf country? Jun 10 $30 $0 -0%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? Jun 10 $24 +$18 +76%
Will FC Twente '65 win on 2026-05-17? Jun 01 $12 +$6 +48%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs Jun 01 $12 +$9 +76%
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 14 $15 $0 -0%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alexei Popyrin vs Matteo Berrettini May 07 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Solana dip to $30 March 23-29? Apr 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in March? Apr 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 14 $42 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,500 and $3,600 on January 23? Feb 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in January 2026? Jan 22 $40 $0 +0%
Will Myles Garrett win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? Jan 15 $42 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.40 December 8-14? Jan 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 06 $28 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $70 December 8-14? Jan 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $112,000 on November 11? Nov 19 $15 $0 +0%
Will Crin Antonescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Nov 11 $27 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Nov 11 $20 $0 +1%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 19 $195 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 September 8–14? Sep 19 $11 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 25–August 1? Sep 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands pa Sep 11 $210 $0 -0%
Will Espanyol win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 11 $220 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 22 $215 $0 -0%
Will Real Sociedad win the 2025–26 La Liga? Aug 22 $200 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3500 on August 1? Aug 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.0 in July? Aug 22 $8 $0 +2%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 31 $200 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 World Series? Jul 31 $213 $0 -0%
Will Přísaha win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electi Jul 09 $224 $0 -0%
Will Rubén Costas win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 09 $100 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 39% −$1
sports 22% −$7
other 20% +$24
crypto 16% +$1
economics 2% $0
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $37 1h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Spirit 61¢ $17 1h
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $37 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 46h
Will Trump and Putin meet next in a Gulf country? SELL No 100¢ $30 46h
Will Trump and Putin meet next in a Gulf country? BUY No 100¢ $30 46h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? BUY Yes 56¢ $24 10d
Will FC Twente '65 win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 67¢ $12 28d
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $15 28d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs BUY MOUZ 56¢ $12 28d
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $15 28d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alexei Popyrin vs Matteo Berrettini BUY Matteo Berrettini 66¢ $8 36d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alexei Popyrin vs Matteo Berrettini BUY Matteo Berrettini 66¢ $8 36d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $14 78d
Will Solana dip to $30 March 23-29? BUY No 100¢ $11 78d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m SELL No 100¢ $31 90d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m SELL No 100¢ $10 90d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $42 90d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $11 129d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,500 and $3,600 on January 23? BUY No 100¢ $14 140d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 157d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 157d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $13 157d
Will XRP dip to $1.40 December 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $9 183d
Will Solana dip to $70 December 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $12 183d
Will Crin Antonescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? SELL No 100¢ $13 213d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $112,000 on November 11? BUY No 100¢ $7 213d
Will Crin Antonescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? SELL No 100¢ $13 213d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $112,000 on November 11? BUY No 100¢ $8 213d
Will Crin Antonescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? BUY No 100¢ $15 213d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +25.3% +13.4% 33% 33% +8.7%
≤30d 6 +33.3% +20.6% 50% 50% +13.5%
≤90d 9 +11.1% +0.5% 56% 33% -0.3%
all 33 +3.2% -6.6% 45% 9% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 9% -8.9%
10% -15.5% 9% -17.6%
15% -23.7% 9% -25.5%
20% -31.2% 6% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.53 · official $30.54 (match) · 84 history records