Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:03:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3A
0x3a1f…4877
weather · 521 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$265 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$222 · open −$42
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$561
Realized−$222
Unrealized−$42
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses204 / 257
Open positions60
Markets (closed)461 / 521
History coverage79d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day21.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 60 History 461 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$370
7 days+$100
14 days−$49
30 days−$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 14? Yes 37¢ 38¢ $58 $58 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 14? Yes 35¢ 32¢ $56 $51 −$4 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Yes 36¢ 100¢ $16 $45 +$29 (+180%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? Yes 41¢ 50¢ $23 $28 +$5 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 14? Yes 11¢ 16¢ $17 $25 +$8 (+48%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Yes 36¢ 34¢ $22 $21 −$1 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 15? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? Yes 35¢ 42¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? Yes 35¢ 30¢ $19 $17 −$3 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? Yes 13¢ 40¢ $5 $16 +$11 (+204%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 15? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $16 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 15? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 15? Yes 37¢ 32¢ $17 $15 −$2 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? Yes 36¢ 40¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? Yes 37¢ 44¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Yes 34¢ 32¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? Yes 31¢ 34¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? Yes 23¢ 21¢ $14 $12 −$1 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 15? Yes 32¢ 40¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+24%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? Yes 48¢ 44¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 15? Yes 27¢ 34¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 15? Yes 39¢ 39¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 15? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 14? Yes 42¢ 80¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+92%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 14? Yes 38¢ 62¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $72 +$109 +152%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $11 +$15 +137%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$6 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 +$10 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $13 +$26 +206%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$14 +540%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 +$16 +169%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 +$20 +233%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $11 +$14 +131%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $8 +$19 +238%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 12? Jun 13 $5 +$7 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $25 +$30 +121%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 +$11 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 +$8 +104%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $14 +$24 +174%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 12 $13 +$17 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 13? Jun 12 $10 −$4 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 12 $12 −$11 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 12 $3 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 12 $8 −$8 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 12 $4 +$9 +222%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 11? Jun 12 $11 +$34 +300%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 12 $10 +$16 +169%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 12 $48 −$46 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? Jun 12 $22 −$21 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 12 $11 +$17 +163%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 11 $13 −$12 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$5 +143%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $12 +$13 +107%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 13? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? Jun 11 $12 −$11 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? Jun 11 $16 −$15 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 12? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 12? Jun 11 $3 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$6 +177%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$7 +137%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$11 +724%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on June 13? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 13? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 11 $19 −$19 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 13? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 13? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 13? Jun 11 $5 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 13? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 12? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 12? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$263
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 24m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? SELL Yes 47¢ $0 24m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 24m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $13 24m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $7 24m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 14? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 12¢ $17 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 35¢ $47 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 38¢ $49 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? SELL Yes 43¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? SELL Yes 33¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 44¢ $15 3h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 34¢ $11 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $16 8h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? SELL Yes 35¢ $0 9h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 9h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $14 9h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 9h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 31¢ $12 9h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 34¢ $13 13h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 15? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 15h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 15? SELL Yes 15¢ $8 15h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 15h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 15? BUY Yes 16¢ $14 15h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 15h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $19 16h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 17h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 15? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 17h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $9 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 164 -2.6% -11.9% 30% 30% -2.9%
≤30d 224 -16.9% -24.8% 25% 25% -14.7%
≤90d 461 -7.8% -16.6% 44% 16% -10.9%
all 461 -7.8% -16.6% 44% 16% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover21.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.6% 16% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -24.6% 16% -19.4%
15% -31.9% 16% -27.2%
20% -38.6% 16% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $561.28 · official $560.93 (match) · 1994 history records