Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:32:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
3A 0x3a20…b647 other 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$29 (+13%) realized +$30 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% +$8
sports 28% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +4.7% -5.3% 43% 29% -0.9%
≤30d 7 +4.7% -5.3% 43% 29% -0.9%
≤90d 7 +4.7% -5.3% 43% 29% -0.9%
all 7 +4.7% -5.3% 43% 29% -0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.3% 29% -0.9%
10% -14.3% 29% -10.4%
15% -22.6% 29% -19.0%
20% -30.2% 14% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$4 · ×3.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.31 per $1 lost it wins $2.31
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$30
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $4 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $9 −$1 -7%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $39 −$1 -2%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $44 −$5 -11%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 +$14 +36%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $67 +$6 +9%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $16 +$18 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 29¢ $8 16m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $9 34m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 43m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 79¢ $38 44m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 80¢ $39 47m
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 SELL Over 48¢ $39 51m
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $44 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $10 5h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 96¢ $54 15h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $40 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $33 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 64¢ $33 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $34 21h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $34 21h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $16 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.59 · official $3.59 (match) · 16 history records