Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:23:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3a24…b894 world 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 467d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate65%13W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 77% +$1
other 12% $0
weather 4% −$2
sports 2% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.9% -8.7% 75% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 9 +0.3% -9.3% 56% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 9 +0.3% -9.3% 56% 0% -9.4%
all 20 -0.1% -9.6% 65% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

467d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses13 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage467d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $40 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $25 +$1 +3%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $43 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $77 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 02 $42 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $42 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $57 +$1 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 30 $41 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $44 −$2 -4%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will Perplexity AI buy TikTok? Jun 27 $9 $0 +5%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? Apr 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? Mar 21 $10 $0 -0%
Will another show be the top global Netflix show this week? Mar 19 $10 $0 +1%
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 15? Mar 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 42°F or below on March 13? Mar 12 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 50-51°F on March 11? Mar 11 $9 −$2 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $12 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $28 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $40 6h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 39¢ $26 27h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 38¢ $25 30h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $38 33h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $38 35h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 41h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 41h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 43h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 43h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $35 47h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $35 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $16 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $26 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $42 2d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 81¢ $35 17d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 81¢ $7 17d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 81¢ $42 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $4 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $36 18d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $40 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $10 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $10 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $2 19d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $2 20d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $42 21d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $41 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.40 · official $14.40 (match) · 62 history records