Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:44:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
3A 0x3a28…8962 other 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3,919 (-22%) realized −$3,919 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate82%28W / 6L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$526per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,556
7 days+$1,556
14 days+$1,556
30 days+$1,556
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$3,755
crypto 13% +$1,272
world 7% +$429
economics 3% +$25
politics 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +37.8% +24.7% 88% 62% +47.5%
≤30d 8 +37.8% +24.7% 88% 62% +47.5%
≤90d 8 +37.8% +24.7% 88% 62% +47.5%
all 34 +11.6% +1.0% 82% 41% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.0% 41% -20.5%
10% -8.7% 26% -28.1%
15% -17.5% 12% -35.0%
20% -25.6% 12% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +63% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$610) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$109 vs −$846 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,919
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses28 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage230d
Avg bet$526
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 20 $203 +$59 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 20 $303 +$48 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 20 $401 +$12 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 20 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $306 +$104 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 20 $301 +$13 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 20 $647 +$1,144 +177%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $204 +$284 +140%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Dec 31 $325 −$325 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Dec 31 $204 +$121 +60%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Dec 30 $450 −$247 -55%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Dec 27 $354 +$96 +27%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Dec 26 $347 +$7 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Dec 24 $309 +$38 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Dec 23 $288 +$21 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Dec 22 $267 +$21 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Dec 21 $261 +$7 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Dec 20 $206 +$54 +26%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Dec 19 $1,533 −$400 -26%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Dec 17 $923 +$210 +23%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Dec 14 $813 +$109 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 Dec 12 $773 +$41 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 Dec 12 $692 +$80 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025? Dec 11 $636 +$57 +9%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 10 $610 +$25 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 Dec 09 $573 +$37 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 Dec 09 $540 +$33 +6%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 8? Dec 09 $523 +$17 +3%
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 6? Dec 09 $465 +$58 +12%
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 30? Dec 06 $117 +$348 +297%
Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday? Nov 28 $111 +$6 +6%
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? Nov 15 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Stable launch a token in 2025? Nov 07 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 02 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $91 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1,791 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $105 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 41¢ $204 4h
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 BUY No 89¢ $325 171d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 BUY No 63¢ $204 171d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 SELL No 40¢ $204 171d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 91 history records