Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:10:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3A 0x3a29…cb84 other 181 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$91 (+5%) realized +$93 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate45%80W / 98L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$61
14 days+$53
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% +$14
sports 21% +$35
crypto 3% −$4
world 1% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -8.8% -17.5% 50% 42% +4.1%
≤30d 103 -12.4% -20.8% 49% 43% -5.3%
≤90d 178 +0.6% -9.0% 45% 39% -4.9%
all 178 +0.6% -9.0% 45% 39% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 39% -4.9%
10% -17.7% 33% -14.0%
15% -25.6% 28% -22.3%
20% -32.9% 22% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized+$93
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses80 / 98
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)178 / 181
History coverage52d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 178 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $77 $76 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 59 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +86%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +242%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $13 +$25 +189%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $40 −$4 -9%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $47 +$1 +3%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 +$31 +122%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $18 −$13 -72%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $11 −$10 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $22 +$23 +107%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $54 −$26 -48%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $27 +$19 +71%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $11 +$24 +222%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $50 −$28 -57%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $27 +$20 +73%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -58%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $6 −$5 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $24 +$7 +30%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $3 $0 +13%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $17 +$2 +14%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $22 +$2 +9%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 10 $2 $0 +7%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $6 −$3 -60%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $5 +$1 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $12 +$1 +12%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $6 +$1 +19%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $5 $0 -7%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $5 +$12 +242%
Will Greece vs. Italy end in a draw? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $17 +$1 +4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $5 +$1 +27%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $18 +$2 +12%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $5 +$2 +30%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $9 +$2 +28%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $2 $0 -7%
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $2 −$1 -26%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $3 $0 -6%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $3 $0 -10%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $35 −$34 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $78 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $3 4h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 7h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 7h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 7h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $38 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 80¢ $35 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 8h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $8 8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 8h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 11h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 11h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $48 11h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $47 15h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 22h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 22h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $53 23h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 23h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $6 23h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 23h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 55¢ $6 24h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 24h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $15 26h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 93¢ $14 26h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $12 29h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 29h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.99 · official $78.99 (match) · 414 history records