Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:55:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
3A 0x3a2b…57dc sports 91 markets active 1d ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,479 (-2%) realized −$1,479 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate66%60W / 31L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$880per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$532est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$471
7 days−$1,193
14 days−$370
30 days−$370
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$192
crypto 19% −$1,329
other 0% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -25.6% -32.7% 54% 29% -12.8%
≤30d 67 -10.4% -18.9% 61% 40% -10.0%
≤90d 67 -10.4% -18.9% 61% 40% -10.0%
all 91 -9.0% -17.7% 66% 37% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 37% -11.3%
10% -25.6% 24% -19.8%
15% -32.8% 13% -27.5%
20% -39.4% 11% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$1,250) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -18% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$191 vs −$422 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,479
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses60 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$532
Open positions0
Markets (closed)91 / 91
History coverage145d
Avg bet$880
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 91 Trades
no open positions (26 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $2,004 +$126 +6%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za Jun 15 $4,411 +$402 +9%
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola Jun 15 $7 +$2 +29%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zha Jun 15 $1,020 −$1,000 -98%
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 13 $5,002 +$70 +1%
Halle Open, Qualification: Tiago Pereira vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 13 $103 −$96 -93%
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Darja Vidmanova Jun 13 $1,020 −$1,000 -98%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Mia Pohankova vs Tamara Korp Jun 13 $614 −$600 -98%
Halle Open, Qualification: Jamie Mackenzie vs Alex Bolt Jun 13 $103 −$100 -97%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $100 +$18 +18%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $1,009 −$1,000 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $1,005 +$201 +20%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 12 $3,011 +$255 +8%
Ilkley: Tatiana Prozorova vs Sinja Kraus Jun 12 $205 −$174 -85%
Lyon: Pedro Martinez vs Felix Balshaw Jun 11 $510 +$6 +1%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $103 −$100 -97%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 11 $87 +$26 +30%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 11 $1,503 +$95 +6%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Federico Bondioli Jun 11 $2,049 +$919 +45%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 11 $1,005 −$1,000 -100%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Greet Minnen Jun 11 $103 +$171 +167%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 10 $1,604 +$233 +14%
Libema Open: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Jun 10 $2,004 +$146 +7%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 10 $1,579 +$2,419 +153%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 10 $105 −$64 -61%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 10 $102 −$48 -47%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Suzan Lamens Jun 10 $1,005 −$1,000 -100%
Ilkley: Lulu Sun vs Ella McDonald Jun 09 $1,005 +$186 +18%
Cattolica: Maks Kasnikowski vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 09 $10 +$6 +61%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $10 +$18 +175%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Jonas Forejtek Jun 09 $103 +$36 +35%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Jenson Brooksby Jun 09 $1,003 +$126 +13%
Ilkley: Lucrezia Stefanini vs Vendula Valdmannova Jun 09 $1,006 +$244 +24%
Lyon: Calvin Hemery vs Alejandro Moro Canas Jun 09 $102 +$89 +87%
Libema Open: Katie Volynets vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 09 $4,433 +$1,071 +24%
ITF Hurghada: Valentina Ryser vs Amra Sadikovic Jun 09 $2,033 −$2,000 -98%
ITF Wuning: Kyoka Okamura vs Hiromi Abe Jun 09 $1,004 +$149 +15%
ITF Tokyo: Riku Takahata vs Saki Tange Jun 09 $25 +$2 +10%
ITF Tokyo: Shinji Hazawa vs Yuta Kikuchi Jun 09 $1,001 +$43 +4%
HSBC Championships: Qinwen Zheng vs Jaqueline Cristian Jun 08 $1,708 +$162 +10%
Cattolica: Andrea Guerrieri vs Dalibor Svrcina Jun 08 $1,511 +$510 +34%
Ilkley: Kyrian Jacquet vs Toby Samuel Jun 08 $1,108 −$1,100 -99%
Ilkley: August Holmgren vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Jun 08 $1,508 +$300 +20%
Lyon: Lorenzo Giustino vs Daniel Rincon Jun 08 $3,004 +$118 +4%
Cattolica: Pierluigi Basile vs Raul Brancaccio Jun 08 $503 +$114 +23%
Libema Open (Doubles): Kempen/Tang vs Hozumi/Wu Jun 08 $602 +$91 +15%
Lyon: Laslo Djere vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 08 $20 −$20 -98%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Paula Badosa Jun 08 $1,307 +$260 +20%
Libema Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Robin Montgomery Jun 08 $1,014 +$805 +80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 94¢ $2,004 26h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za BUY Renata Zarazua 86¢ $402 29h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za BUY Renata Zarazua 92¢ $4,010 29h
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola SELL Remy Bertola 39¢ $8 30h
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola BUY Remy Bertola 29¢ $7 30h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zha BUY Magdalena Frech 33¢ $1,020 30h
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi SELL Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 100¢ $5,073 2d
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 98¢ $5,002 2d
Halle Open, Qualification: Tiago Pereira vs Tom Gentzsch SELL Tiago Pereira 14¢ $4 3d
Halle Open, Qualification: Tiago Pereira vs Tom Gentzsch BUY Tiago Pereira 14¢ $103 3d
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Darja Vidmanova BUY Darja Vidmanova 34¢ $1,020 3d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Mia Pohankova vs Tamara Korp BUY Tamara Korpatsch 21¢ $614 3d
Halle Open, Qualification: Jamie Mackenzie vs Alex Bolt BUY Jamie Mackenzie 6¢ $103 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 69¢ $1,009 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 84¢ $100 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 4d
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova BUY Kamilla Rakhimova 83¢ $1,005 4d
Ilkley: Tatiana Prozorova vs Sinja Kraus SELL Sinja Kraus 2¢ $31 4d
Ilkley: Tatiana Prozorova vs Sinja Kraus BUY Sinja Kraus 10¢ $103 4d
Ilkley: Tatiana Prozorova vs Sinja Kraus BUY Sinja Kraus 17¢ $102 4d
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Ajla Tomljanovic 79¢ $4 4d
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Ajla Tomljanovic 90¢ $1,003 4d
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Ajla Tomljanovic 93¢ $2,004 4d
Lyon: Pedro Martinez vs Felix Balshaw SELL Pedro Martinez 32¢ $517 5d
Lyon: Pedro Martinez vs Felix Balshaw BUY Pedro Martinez 30¢ $510 5d
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Nick Kyrgios 7¢ $103 5d
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Federico Bondioli SELL Federico Bondioli 24¢ $2,968 5d
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Federico Bondioli BUY Federico Bondioli 12¢ $1,026 5d
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Federico Bondioli BUY Federico Bondioli 23¢ $1,023 5d
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Zhizhen Zhang 76¢ $87 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 204 history records