Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:45:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
3A 0x3a2d…c880 sports 149 markets active 2d ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$429 (-1%) realized −$85 · open −$344
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate63%93W / 54L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$210per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$109est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$805
14 days−$582
30 days−$516
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% +$80
sports 31% −$489
other 21% −$296
politics 9% +$417
economics 3% +$67
weather 1% −$23
crypto 0% −$78
tech 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -0.3% -9.8% 50% 21% -19.1%
≤30d 49 +38.6% +25.4% 69% 29% -12.4%
≤90d 115 +10.8% +0.2% 67% 30% -8.9%
all 147 +4.8% -5.2% 63% 31% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 31% -9.4%
10% -14.2% 18% -18.1%
15% -22.5% 12% -26.0%
20% -30.1% 6% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$41 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$122
Realized−$85
Unrealized−$344
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses93 / 54
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$109
Open positions2
Markets (closed)147 / 149
History coverage486d
Avg bet$210
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 55¢ 14¢ $462 $121 −$340 (-74%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 6¢ 1¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $856 −$631 -74%
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 21 $770 +$124 +16%
Something to have the most kills Jun 21 $12 −$6 -53%
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 20 $102 −$101 -99%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $400 +$64 +16%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $746 +$147 +20%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $299 −$284 -95%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $100 −$98 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $2,900 +$104 +4%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $30 +$1 +4%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $490 +$7 +1%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$9 -30%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $480 +$11 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $1,150 −$134 -12%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $150 +$18 +12%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $40 +$1 +4%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $150 +$10 +6%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $201 −$201 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 +$6 +38%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $362 +$153 +42%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $539 +$29 +5%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 15 $50 +$10 +21%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $41 +$4 +9%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 $0 -2%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $570 +$11 +2%
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? Jun 14 $49 −$6 -12%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $720 +$49 +7%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$4 +42%
Curaçao to score first vs. Germany? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $17 +$9 +52%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 +$19 +37%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $603 +$31 +5%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $367 +$13 +4%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $151 +$28 +19%
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? Jun 12 $110 +$6 +6%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$24 +118%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 11 $84 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $403 +$10 +2%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 08 $983 +$89 +9%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest Jun 08 $9 +$2 +23%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $788 +$29 +4%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Lo Jun 06 $502 +$16 +3%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 06 $274 +$13 +5%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $30 +$5 +16%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 06 $143 −$2 -2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $51 −$50 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $78 −$7 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $962 −$42 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $171 +$13 +8%
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? May 24 $596 +$62 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Paper Rex 1¢ $9 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 47¢ $102 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 60¢ $202 2d
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 54¢ $100 2d
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 54¢ $19 2d
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 54¢ $9 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 70¢ $101 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 81¢ $50 2d
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 2d
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 54¢ $18 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 80¢ $20 2d
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 54¢ $11 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 83¢ $25 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 89¢ $100 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Leviatán Esports 8¢ $15 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 20¢ $10 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 26¢ $10 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 51¢ $51 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Leviatán Esports 51¢ $55 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 45¢ $51 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Leviatán Esports 36¢ $35 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 30¢ $31 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Leviatán Esports 30¢ $16 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Leviatán Esports 30¢ $5 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Leviatán Esports 30¢ $1 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Leviatán Esports 30¢ $22 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Leviatán Esports 30¢ $40 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Leviatán Esports 30¢ $5 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Leviatán Esports 30¢ $21 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 20¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $122.29 · official $122.29 (match) · 777 history records